#USD1持币生息最高8% The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest-rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chair Powell will, as usual, hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.

Facing this highly unpredictable Fed decision, JPMorgan’s U.S. Markets Information trading desk, in its latest research note, expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while at least two hawkish dissenting votes may occur—including objections from Hamack and Logan.
The Lighthouse outlines five scenarios for the Fed’s decision and the potential trajectory of the S&P 500 index (ranked by probability from highest to lowest):
① The Fed keeps rates unchanged while taking a hawkish stance (probability 50%)—today’s S&P 500 trading range is expected to be from up 0.25% to down 0.5%. This is the current baseline forecast: the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged due to strength in the labor market/economic growth, but it will remain vigilant about inflation—recent energy price trends suggest that a new round of inflation may be on the way.
② The Fed keeps rates unchanged while taking a dovish stance (probability 28%)—the S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5%-1%. This would be the most favorable outcome for equities.
③ The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points (probability 20%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could double again. With the market shifting toward avoiding growth/momentum stocks and AI-related names, the Russell 2000 index may hold up relatively better in this down market.
④ The Fed raises rates by 50 basis points (probability 1%)—the S&P 500 falls 2%-4%. If the Fed also releases information indicating that this hike is only a temporary response to traditional inflation indicators and should not be interpreted as the start of a series of hikes, then the downside could be limited.
⑤ The Fed cuts rates (probability 1%)—the S&P 500’s trading range is expected to be from up 1% to down 1.5%. The reason equities could face negative outcomes is that if the market views this as a sign of the Fed losing independence, it will lead to higher yields, a higher breakeven inflation rate, higher volatility, and weakness in the stock market.