July 29 market outlook: The Fed’s remarks are leaning toward easing, which should benefit BTC.

BTC is currently holding above $63,000, and it has risen by roughly 6% this month. By contrast, AI and semiconductor tech stocks have generally been falling recently.

Market views on the upcoming Fed decision remain inconsistent: data shows a 70% probability that the current interest rate will be kept unchanged, with a 30% chance of a rate hike.

The reason this call is difficult to get right is that the Fed intentionally downplayed guidance on future policy, preventing funds from easily figuring out where things are headed. Historically, meetings with disagreements this big like this one have only occurred twice in recent years.

Recently, the price action of two categories of assets has clearly diverged: Nasdaq had been climbing steadily earlier on, while Bitcoin has been consolidating for a long time at low levels; their price-movement correlation has grown weaker and weaker. By late July, the gap widened further: Bitcoin’s monthly gain was 6%, while the broader U.S. stock market basically saw no change, and the semiconductor sector dropped nearly 20%.

Over the past month, easing inflation, regional conflicts, and rising oil prices—combined with uncertainties in trade policy—have made U.S. stock expectations swing back and forth. But in the crypto market, overall sentiment is gradually warming up. As long as tonight’s Fed press conference signals a more dovish stance, Bitcoin is likely to perform better than U.S. stocks. #USD1持币生息最高8%