Key levels above: 1920-1940. A break and holding above = bulls recover; targets 1982-2000.

Key levels below: 1880-1890. A breakdown = bears take control; targets 1850-1820.

After ETH surged to 1982 and pulled back, it has been repeatedly testing around 1909. Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. military bases broke the ceasefire; oil prices jumped sharply by more than 4%. The geopolitical risk premium is back in the spotlight. But the bigger suspense is tonight’s FOMC—rate hike probability is 33.7%, the most uncertain decision since 2020. Both bulls and bears are waiting; whoever shows their hand first will be the first to die.

Bulls vs. bears logic

① Ethereum spot ETFs had net inflows of $29.08 million yesterday, continuing net inflows for three straight days; BlackRock’s ETHA led with a single-day inflow of $29.74 million
② A “mega whale” accumulated 56.4k ETH in July, with an average cost of about $1,742; unrealized gains are over ten million dollars, and it keeps adding
③ On the hourly timeframe, it stabilized near 1866 and rebounded; lows are gradually stepping higher, showing signs of short-term repair

① Although Ethereum spot ETFs saw single-day inflows, cumulatively they still remain net outflows of $440 million; Grayscale’s ETHE had a single-day outflow of $210 million
② Iran’s missile strike on U.S. military bases broke the ceasefire; oil prices surged by more than 4%; repeated geopolitical tensions + renewed energy inflation suppress risk appetite
③ The Fed’s rate hike probability is 33.7%; interest-rate futures open interest has surged to a historical high; once the hike is implemented, ETH will be hit first

Go long on breakout: With volume and a firm hold above 1920-1940, chase longs; stop loss below 1890; targets 1982-2000.
Go short on breakdown: A valid breakdown below 1880-1890, chase shorts; stop loss above 1910; targets 1850-1820.
Middle zone: Do nothing between 1890-1920, wait for the FOMC decision to act again. $ETH ‌