ETH’s weakness today is very pronounced, unlike BTC’s “struggles.” ETH is already in a clear bearish downtrend after a breakdown. Strategically, you need to be more decisive than with BTC: abandon the fantasy of catching the bottom, and focus on shorting on rebounds.

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📉 Current technical overview (as of the July 29 Asian session)

· Trend and structure: It has effectively broken down below 3,100), confirming a technical bear market. The moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMA) are positioned bearish in the 3,310 zone and are diverging downward, with the price $2,932** suppressed by all moving averages.
· Key levels:
· Strong resistance: $2,980 - $3,000 (former support turned resistance, and it converges with the 4-hour Bollinger middle band).
· Bulls’ lifeline: $2,900 (the psychological level); once lost, it will open room to the downside.
· Downside targets: $2,820 - $2,780 (the breakout point from November 2025 and the theoretical measured move downside target).
· Volume and price: Downward movement with expanding volume, rebounds with shrinking volume; the daily MACD has a dead-cross opening below the zero axis expanding, and bearish momentum has not exhausted.

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🏦 Macro variables (tonight’s Fed decision)

· If hawkish (bearish): ETH will likely break below 2,780 first, and the downside is likely to exceed BTC.
· If dovish (short-term bullish): it may trigger an oversold rebound to 3,030 (the 200-week moving average), which will become an insurmountable barrier—an excellent opportunity to add to shorts.
· Conclusion: No matter the outcome of the decision, ETH’s medium-term bearish trend is difficult to reverse; rebounds are opportunities to short.

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⚔️ Today’s tiered trading strategy (core)

Trigger condition Action direction Entry range Stop loss Take-profit targets Position
Pullback confirms resistance Short (primary) $2,970 - $3,000 4-hour close > $3,030 $2,900 → $2,820 Regular (≤3%)
Breaks the psychological level Chase short (add) $2,890 Follow-bid below $2,930 (rebound confirmation) $2,820 → $2,780 Add position (≤2%)
Extreme sharp drop to target Ultra-short rebound long $2,780 - $2,800 $2,750 $2,880 - $2,900 Very light position, quick in and out

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📋 Risk control and execution details (ETH-specific)

1. Rigid stop loss: For shorts, set the stop at above $3,030. If it is triggered, it means ETH has regained the bull-bear boundary line; you must immediately stop shorting and stand aside—do not hold the position through it.
2. Take profit in batches: upon reaching 2,780.
3. Strictly forbid catching bottoms against the trend: before a V-shaped reversal occurs with daily-level breakout volume and a long bullish candle (rise >8%) or after panic selling, any long trades are a high-risk gamble and are not recommended.
4. Monitor in conjunction: If BTC gets supported at $63,000, ETH’s rebound strength will be weaker than BTC; it is the preferred asset for short-hedging (Long BTC / Short ETH strategy).

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Core conclusion: ETH’s bearish trend is clear and stronger than BTC’s. Below 2,900 is the momentum-following chase zone. If tonight’s decision triggers a rebound, cherish the high short opportunity near $3,000. If the direction is right, the rest is patiently waiting for the entry point.

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