Key levels above: 64,100–64,500; 1-hour Bollinger midline + 4-hour EMA pressure band. Break through and hold = bulls continue; targets 65,000–65,700.

Key levels below: 63,300–63,500; the stabilization base after yesterday’s high-volume bearish candle. A breakdown = bears take control; targets 62,600–62,100.

After BTC was dumped from 67,150 down to 62,600, it stabilized and rebounded. The current price 63,956 is stuck near the Bollinger midline. After 63,350 got support, it tried to bounce, but the past several 4-hour candles have been small-bodied—rebound momentum is clearly insufficient. The FOMC results come out tonight—CME FedWatch shows a 68.5% probability of keeping rates and 31.5% for a rate hike, the most uncertain decision since 2020. Bulls and bears both don’t dare move first—whoever shows their hand first is the first to die.

Bulls vs bears logic

① The Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows of $124.1 million yesterday. BlackRock’s IBIT led with a $205.6 million single-day inflow—institutions swept in ahead of the FOMC despite the risk
② The Iran-U.S. ceasefire has entered its fourth day. Oil prices crashed from above $100 to around $82—the geopolitical premium continues to fade
③ On the hourly timeframe, after a rapid surge from around 62,500, candles have continued closing green, shifting the center of gravity up to test the key resistance at 63,800. Once it breaks and stabilizes, there is still further upside momentum

① Perpetual contract funding rates are negatively tilted. Options skew to the right indicates hedging demand for downside has surged. Liquidation heatmaps show heavy long positioning overhead—any rebound immediately triggers strong liquidation sell orders
② The FOMC rate-hike probability is 31.5%. Castle Securities even expects the Fed to unexpectedly hike by 25bp—once the hike is confirmed, higher rates directly suppress risk assets
③ After three consecutive days of net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, they’ve just flipped back to net inflows—capital divergence hasn’t resolved. The Iran-U.S. negotiations still have uncertainties; Trump said they “can increase the level of strikes at any time”

Go long on breakout: If volume expands and you hold above 64,100–64,500, chase the long. Stop-loss below 63,500. Targets 65,000–65,700.
Go short on breakdown: If you effectively break below 63,300–63,500, chase the short. Stop-loss above 64,000. Targets 62,600–62,100.
Middle zone: Don’t act between 63,500–64,100; wait for the FOMC to land. $BTC ‌