As of July 29, 2026 (Wednesday), Bitcoin futures technicals show a choppy but bearish-leaning setup. After the price fell from last week’s high point and then rebounded from oversold conditions, it is now facing a critical choice of direction. The key takeaways are as follows:

📉 Trends and patterns

· Overall trend bearish: Since the high of $66,924, the pullback has confirmed a “bull trap,” and the daily EMA is in a dead-cross configuration (50 EMA < 200 EMA), with the downward trend unchanged.
· Key resistance: Heavy pressure above is concentrated in the 64,200-64,800 range, near the intersection of the Bollinger mid-band and EMA50, where sell pressure is significant.
· Core support: The key support below is at 63,100-63,300; if it breaks, it may accelerate the drop toward the previous low around 62,600.

📊 Interpretation of key indicators

· Momentum and derivatives: The 1-hour RSI is around 52, neutral to slightly weak. The 4-hour MACD has bearish contraction but has not yet formed a bullish crossover. The funding rate is neutral to slightly negative, with no strong short-squeeze momentum.
· Macro variable (❗ major risk): Today’s Federal Reserve rate decision is the biggest variable. Ahead of the announcement, market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see. If hawkish signals are released (rate-hike expectations rise), the price may come under downward pressure.

💡 Reference for trade ideas

Given that the rate decision will amplify volatility, it’s recommended to keep position sizing tight and avoid heavy-weight speculation.

· Prefer short setups: If a rebound meets resistance at 64,200-64,600, consider a light-position short. Targets are 63,300-62,600, and the stop-loss should be set above 65,000.
· Fade the rebound: Only when 63,100-63,300 stabilizes can you consider a light long, quick in and quick out. Target is near 64,000; if 62,600 breaks, strictly stop out.

Summary: Technically, bearish control is dominant, but tonight’s Federal Reserve decision will determine the near-term direction. Before the decision, it is likely to remain range-bound between 63,000-64,500, waiting for direction confirmation. #SK海力士财报不佳盘后下跌 $BTC ‌