An Introductory Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC 1. Dow Theory
Major trend (1-hour timeframe): The main downtrend that began from the historical high of 74,462 on May 28 is still ongoing. After the price fell from 74,462 through the June 15 secondary high of 67,255, it dropped all the way to the July 1 low of 57,721, for a cumulative decline of 16,741. After bottoming on July 1, the bulls launched an ABC rebound (Wave A 64,597 → Wave B 61,471 → Wave C 64,660). After the end of Wave C, the price pulled back to the July 13 low of 61,751. A V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14-15, and the price surged to 65,510 (a new high since July). However, on July 16-17, there was a continuous large drop, with the price plunging from 65,510 to 62,463 at 13:00 on July 17, fully giving back all of the gains from July 14-15. From July 18-21, the bulls regained momentum: the price rose from 62,463 all the way to the July 21 14:00 high of 66,916, making a new high since July 17. From July 22-24 there was a pullback, falling from 66,916 to 63,670 at 14:15 on July 24, a retracement of about 3,246. From July 25-27, price traded sideways in the 64,000-65,500 range. Intraday on July 27 it briefly pushed up to 65,651 (07-27 06:00), but then quickly dropped. On July 28 there was a violent selloff: the price fell from 65,655 at 13:45 on July 27 to 62,712 at 13:45 on July 28. The single-day decline was about 2,943, fully erasing all gains from July 25-27, and also setting a new low since July 24. In the late session of July 28, the price rebounded from 62,712 to 63,718, a rebound of about 1,006. The current price 63,718 is above the July 24 low of 63,670, and the market is in a phase of fighting over a crucial support area. The major trend may be transitioning from deep decline into a consolidation phase after bottom construction, but the high-volume plunge on July 28 is a dangerous signal.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the low of 62,712 at 13:45 on July 28, the short-term trend has shown characteristics of stabilizing at lower levels. The short-term lows shifted down from 66,916 (07-21 14:00) to 63,670 (07-24 14:15) → 62,712 (07-28 13:45), showing a weak pattern of “lows continuing to move lower.” The short-term highs shifted down from 66,916 to 65,757 (07-24 07:15) → 65,651 (07-27 06:00) → 65,655 (07-27 13:45). The continuous lower highs indicate that short sellers are completely in control. In the late session of July 28, the price rebounded from 62,712 to 63,718; the retracement was limited, and it is a technical repair after the plunge.
Dow Conclusion: The major trend may be turning, but the high-volume plunge on July 28 is the key danger signal. The short-term trend has entered a weak downward phase. 62,500-63,500 is the core short-term support, and 64,500-65,000 is the key short-term resistance. If it can hold above 64,000 and break above 65,000, there is still a possibility of pushing toward 66,000. If it fails and breaks below 62,500, the rebound may end and the market may return to a correction range of 61,750-60,000.
2. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Bottom fractals: A strong bottom fractal formed at 63,670 at 14:15 on July 24. Afterwards, the price continued to rebound. From July 25-26, multiple bottom fractals kept moving upward (64,238 → 64,350 → 64,476), indicating that bull follow-through strengthened. But on the late session of July 27, the bottom fractal shifted down to 64,791; on July 28, the bottom fractal moved further down to 62,712. This broke the upward sequence of bottom fractals, showing that bears are fully dominant.
Top fractals: A strong top fractal formed at 66,916 at 14:00 on July 21, and the subsequent pullback amplitude reached 3,244. A secondary top fractal formed at 65,757 at 07-24 07:15. A new top fractal formed at 65,655 at 13:45 on July 27; then the pullback amplitude reached 2,943 (the low was 62,712), showing that the bears’ strength is completely dominant.
Bi (strokes) and segments:
From the 62,463 bottom fractal (07-17) to the 66,916 top fractal (07-21), a bullish stroke formed, with a rise of about 4,453—very strong momentum.
From the 66,916 top fractal to the 63,670 bottom fractal (07-24), a bearish stroke formed, with a drop of about 3,246—strong momentum.
From the 63,670 bottom fractal to the 65,651 top fractal (07-27), a bullish stroke formed, with a rise of about 1,981—moderate momentum.
From the 65,651 top fractal to the 62,712 bottom fractal (07-28), a bearish stroke formed, with a drop of about 2,939—very strong momentum.
From the 62,712 bottom fractal to the 64,032 top fractal (07-28 16:45), a bullish stroke formed, with a rise of about 1,320—moderate momentum.
Central ranges:
The prior falling central range 62,000-64,500 has been fully broken upward, but on July 28 the price pulled back to below 64,000 and is testing support at the upper boundary of that central range. 62,712 is close to the lower boundary of that central range at 62,500.
The new rising central range 64,000-65,500 failed to form, and the price has broken below its lower boundary. The central range has been effectively punctured.
If the price cannot quickly reclaim above 63,500, it may form a new falling central range of 62,000-64,000.
Chan Conclusion: The bullish stroke had moderate strength (+1,320), but the subsequent bearish stroke had extremely strong strength (-2,939), indicating that bears are completely dominant. The new rising central range failed to form, and the price is currently testing the support of the original falling central range. In the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal support can form around 62,500-63,500. If it does, the bullish stroke may restart and challenge 64,500. If it directly breaks below 62,500, the rebound may end and the target becomes 61,750-60,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the走势 since the May 28 high of 74,462 is re-labeled as follows:
Larger-degree five-wave decline (completed):
1st wave: 74,462 → 72,450 (May 28), amplitude about -2,012
2nd wave: 72,450 → 74,223 (May 29), amplitude about +1,773
3rd wave: 74,223 → 59,096 (June 5), amplitude about -15,127 (primary impulse down)
4th wave: 59,096 → 67,255 (June 15), amplitude about +8,159
5th wave: 67,255 → 57,721 (July 1), amplitude about -9,534
ABC rebound correction (has evolved into a more complex structure):
A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), amplitude +6,876
B wave: 64,597 → 61,471 (July 8), amplitude -3,126
C wave: 61,471 → 64,660 (July 10), amplitude +3,189 (Wave C ended)
X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,751 (July 13), amplitude -2,909
A new upward impulse (facing failure):
1st wave (new): 61,751 → 65,510 (July 15), amplitude +3,759, momentum strong
2nd wave pullback: 65,510 → 62,463 (July 17), amplitude -3,047, retracement reached 81.1%
3rd wave (new): 62,463 → 66,916 (July 21), amplitude +4,453, momentum extremely strong
4th wave pullback: 66,916 → 63,670 (July 24), amplitude -3,246, retracement reached 72.9%
5th wave (failed): 63,670 → 65,655 (July 27), amplitude +1,985, momentum weak; then it rapidly plunged to 62,712
Wave Conclusion: Currently, it may be in a deep pullback stage after the failure of the new upward 5th wave. The 5th wave’s strength was weak (+1,985) and it then rapidly plunged by 2,939, confirming the 5th wave’s failure. If 62,712 can be defended effectively and the price pushes back up to break above 65,655, a new upward structure may unfold. If it breaks below 62,500 and moves close to 61,750, the upward structure would completely fail, and a deeper pullback could unfold in the 60,000-59,000 range.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price characteristics: The July 1 crash stage showed an extremely clear high-volume feature. During the July 1-10 rebound phase, volume expanded moderately. From July 10-13, the pullback occurred with shrinking volume. On July 14-15 there was a high-volume breakout with positive volume-price alignment. On July 16-17, there was a high-volume crash. From July 18-21, there was a strong rebound with moderately expanding volume, indicating that bull capital entered in an orderly manner. From July 22-24, as price pulled back, volume gradually diminished, showing that sell pressure was limited. From July 25-27, price consolidated in the 64,000-65,500 range with noticeably shrinking volume. On July 28, there was a high-volume crash: the price fell from 65,655 to 62,712, with a significant volume increase, showing that short sellers’ capital exited in a concentrated manner. In the late session on July 28, the price rebounded from 62,712 to 63,718, with moderately expanding volume, indicating that dip-buying capital entered, though the力度 was limited. Overall, it presents a complex volume-price combination: “high-volume crash + rebound volume expansion + pullback volume contraction + another high-volume crash + late-session rebound volume expansion.”
Key volume-price nodes:
At 18:00 on July 13, selling pressure eased with shrinking volume (very low volume), forming a stage bottom at 61,751.
At 12:00 on July 15, a high-volume bullish candle appeared; price surged from 64,664 to 65,510, confirming the start of a bull offensive.
At 12:00 on July 21, a parabolic high-volume bullish candle appeared; price advanced from 65,200 to 66,916, confirming the start of the 3rd wave.
At 14:00 on July 24, selling pressure eased with shrinking volume; a stage low formed at 63,670, confirming that the 4th wave pullback may have ended.
At 13:45 on July 28, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (very large volume); price crashed from 64,500 to 62,712, confirming that bears concentrated their strength and that a stage low formed.
Recent volume-price state: In the late session of July 28, volume expanded moderately; price rebounded from 62,712 to 63,718. This is a technical repair after the crash, but the volume is insufficient to confirm a reversal.
Volume-Price Conclusion: After the high-volume crash on July 28, there was a late-session rebound, but the rebound volume is not enough. Key observation points: If the pullback to 62,500-63,000 shows shrinking volume and stabilization, a double-bottom structure may form. If it breaks down below 62,500 with high volume, the rebound ends.
5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Trade volume distribution (Volume Profile): The most traded volume control point (POC) from the recent 24 days (July 5-28) is 64,092. The current price 63,718 is about 374 below the POC, showing a discount state below the value area (Below Value).
Current position analysis: Since price 63,718 is below POC 64,092, it is below the value area. The Value Area is 61,981-65,176. The current price is near the lower portion inside the Value Area, indicating that short-term bull-bear balance is leaning bearish. The lower boundary of the Value Area at 61,981 is a strong medium-term support; 63,000-63,500 is a key short-term support; and 64,500 is a short-term resistance.
High-Volume Nodes (HVN):
66,000-66,500: Overhead resistance HVN (July 21 high-volume trading cluster; currently strong resistance)
65,000-65,500: Secondary resistance HVN (July 27 breakout-and-retrace zone)
64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (July 25-26 high-volume trading cluster; already broken below currently)
62,500-63,500: Downside support HVN (July 28 high-volume trading cluster; currently key support)
61,500-62,500: Extreme support HVN (July 13 high-volume trading cluster)
Delta analysis: During the rebound on July 21, Delta turned sharply positive, confirming that active buying was dominant. From July 22-24, during the pullback, Delta gradually turned negative. From July 25-27, Delta fluctuated near the zero axis. On July 28 early session Delta turned positive but then quickly and deeply turned negative, indicating that buyer strength completely exhausted and seller strength erupted in a concentrated way. In the late session of July 28, Delta turned slightly positive again, showing some dip-buying capital entering, but with limited strength. Currently, the Delta MA12 has turned deeply negative from around the zero axis, showing that bears are dominant.
Order Flow Conclusion: Price is below POC 64,092 and also below the lower portion of the Value Area, so sellers are dominant in the short term. Overhead 64,500 and 65,000 are two key HVN resistance levels; below 63,000 and 62,500 are two key HVN support levels. If Delta can keep turning positive and the market shows volume contraction and stabilization in 62,500-63,500, a double-bottom structure may appear. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 62,500, the rebound ends.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 74,462 (stage high), 67,255 (June 15 high), 66,916 (July 21 high)
Key resistance: 67,500 (psychological level), 66,000 (July 21 peak-and-retrace zone), 65,500 (July 27 high zone), 65,000 (psychological level)
Key support: 64,000 (bull-bear watershed; already broken), 63,500 (late-session July 28 test zone), 62,712 (July 28 crash low), 62,463 (July 17 crash low), 61,751 (July 13 low), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
At 18:00 on July 13, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appeared, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,751.
At 12:00 on July 15, a large bullish candle appeared; price surged from 64,000 to 65,510, forming a “breakout bullish” candle pattern.
At 12:00 on July 21, a large bullish candle appeared; price jumped from 65,100 to 66,916, forming a “breakout bullish” candle pattern.
At 14:15 on July 24, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appeared; a “hammer” bottom pattern formed at 63,670.
At 13:45 on July 28, a large bearish candle appeared (body about -2,800); price crashed from 65,500 to 62,712, forming a “decapitation guillotine” bearish pattern.
At 16:45 on July 28, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appeared; a “hammer” bottom pattern formed at 62,712, and with July 24 it forms the early outline of a double-bottom structure.
Trend structure:
Short term: Since July 28 after 62,712, the short-term descending channel has been broken. The lower support is about 62,500, and the upper resistance is about 64,500.
Medium term: The downtrend line since the May 28 high of 74,462 was broken upward in mid-July, but on July 28 the price fell back to near the trend line and is testing the effectiveness of the trend-line support.
Price action conclusion: The short-term market is in a deep pullback stage after the failure of the 5-wave move. 62,500-63,500 is the last line of defense for bulls in the short term: if it holds, the double-bottom structure is established and there is potential for a rebound to 64,500-65,000; if it breaks below 62,500, price would retest the 61,750-60,000 range.
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory provides a signal that the major trend may be turning, but the high-volume crash on July 28 is a dangerous signal, and the short-term trend has weakened. Chan Theory shows that after the bullish stroke had moderate strength (+1,320), the subsequent bearish stroke was extremely strong (-2,939), meaning bears are fully dominant and the new rising central range failed to form. Elliott Wave Theory confirms the 5th wave has failed; the market is currently in a deep pullback stage, with 62,500 as the key pivot. The volume-price relationship shows a complex combination of “high-volume crash + high-volume rebound late in the session,” but the rebound volume is insufficient. Order flow shows POC 64,092; price has fallen below POC and Delta MA12 has turned deeply negative. Price action shows that after the “decapitation guillotine” bearish pattern, a “hammer” double-bottom early structure formed, with intense bull-bear contention in the short term.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bullish scenario: If price shows volume contraction and stabilization and forms a bottom fractal + Delta turns positive around 62,500-63,500, consider a small long position. Targets: 64,000 → 64,500 → 65,000. Stop-loss: 62,200.
Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 64,000-64,500 and top fractal appears together with high-volume downward action, confirming that the 64,500 resistance is effective, consider a short trade. Targets: 63,000 → 62,500 → 61,750. Stop-loss: 65,000.
Current state: At 63,718, the market is in a deep pullback stage after the failure of the 5th wave. Bears are dominant in the short term, but 62,712 may form a double bottom. It is recommended to mainly stay on the sidelines, wait for support confirmation at 62,500-63,500 before making a decision. If it breaks below 62,500, the rebound is completely over and you can chase a short toward 61,750.