This wave of decline didn’t come out of nowhere—the real signal was actually hidden in the earlier spike and subsequent pullback. The price still looks high, but every time there’s a push up, there’s no staying power. The moment there’s a bit of movement, sell pressure slams it back down. I didn’t rush to chase it at the time—I was mostly waiting for it to reveal its flaws on its own.

When the price returned to around 277.1, the rebound still looked insubstantial, and that’s when I fully committed to the short thesis. There was a quick counter-rally in the middle, and the chart was especially easy to panic from, but afterward there was no effective follow-through. Instead, it kept moving downward, eventually reaching 195.4. This time the result was +1419.88%.

The most worth revisiting part of this trade isn’t how much I made, but the fact that I wasn’t thrown off by a fake breakout. Going short wasn’t driven by pessimistic sentiment—the high-level problem just never got resolved. After the market gave its feedback, I became even more determined on this direction, but I wouldn’t let myself get carried away just because I timed one move correctly.

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