Brothers trading US stocks short-term, my advice is very direct: before the Federal Reserve rate decision is released at 2:00 a.m. on the 30th, try not to open new positions casually, especially in the Nasdaq and high-valuation tech stocks. At this kind of timing, it’s easiest to get thrust up and down; even if you guess the direction correctly, you may still get swept out first. Rather than betting on up or down in advance, it’s better to stay in cash and wait for the market to show its stance.

The current interest-rate range is 3.50%—3.75%. Market consensus is still that the rate will remain unchanged, but there’s also a possibility of an unexpected 25-basis-point hike. In a Reuters survey of 104 economists, all of them predict that the Fed will hold rates steady this time.

Personally, I also lean toward no hike. But what truly determines the market may not be the result itself—it may be the subsequent statement and the press conference. As long as they continue emphasizing inflation, or hint that a rate hike may still be on the table in September, the market can still first rise and then fall.

This time, compared with the crypto market, I think the Nasdaq faces a bigger direct impact. Tech-stock valuations are very sensitive to interest rates and US Treasury yields. On top of that, in these days, they’re also colliding with earnings reports from tech giants—so the market is essentially trading both interest rates and earnings at the same time, leaving very little room for error.

Crypto will move too, but the transmission is more indirect: the dollar and US Treasuries move first, then the Nasdaq signals, BTC follows risk appetite, and finally altcoins amplify volatility through leverage and liquidations.

So my understanding is: the Nasdaq sets the direction, BTC amplifies the sentiment, and altcoins amplify the drawdown. In this situation, going to cash isn’t missing an opportunity—it’s keeping the initiative in your own hands. After the result comes out, seeing how the dollar, US Treasuries, and the Nasdaq move is often more stable than placing a bet in advance.

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