Brothers holding SK hynix positions, take note. At 8:00 AM Beijing time today, SK hynix will release its Q2 earnings report. A lot of people are most concerned right now about whether performance will “blow up,” but I actually think the earnings figures themselves will most likely not be too bad. On the fundamentals—HBM demand, AI server orders, and so on—the market has already priced them in.

The real trouble is that SK hynix has risen too sharply beforehand. Now, investors aren’t just looking at whether they made money; they’re looking at whether it can be even better than what the market imagined. As long as revenue and profit merely meet expectations, or management sounds slightly more conservative about the second half, the stock could still see positive “earnings-related” execution.

Plus, after ChangXin Tech went public, the market has started to worry that competition in the memory industry will intensify. Over the past couple of days, SK hynix’s price action has already been noticeably weaker. The daily chart fell from around 1977 all the way to around 1068. Today, it also dropped sharply intraday by more than 6%, with the low already hitting the area around 1022. With a volume-increasing selloff, all short- and medium-term moving averages are above the price, and the MACD is still below the zero line. In the overall structure, there’s no clear stop-the-fall signal.

So my current leaning is: **the earnings numbers might look good, but the stock may not buy it—there’s a higher probability of a spike-and-fade, or even continuing to probe lower.** What the market wants now isn’t just a “decent” earnings report; it wants revenue, profit, HBM orders, and the subsequent guidance to all significantly exceed expectations. As long as one of them isn’t particularly impressive, funds may keep using the earnings report as an opportunity to sell into strength.

My plan is also simple: I won’t bet on the earnings in advance. After 8:00 AM, I’ll first see how the first wave of funds moves. Even if there’s a spike higher, I’ll treat it as a deep-dip rebound and won’t rush to conclude a reversal. If the spike can’t hold, I’ll still lean toward finding opportunities to short. Only if there’s a volume-backed close back above 1200, and a pullback can hold, will I reassess the direction. In earnings-driven trading, guessing the numbers doesn’t matter—following the money is what matters.

$SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU