🔥 The Fed meeting is already tomorrow! (21:00 MSK)

With a probability of nearly 66.3%, the rate will be kept unchanged (a PAUSE). The chance of a rate hike = 33.7%.

▪️Reuters:
- All 104 economists surveyed expect a pause, but the market is allowing for an unexpected increase.
- The more likely timing for the start of rate increases is September.

▪️WSJ:
- This is one of the most unpredictable Fed meetings in recent years.
- A pause is supported by slowing inflation; an increase is supported by a jump in oil prices and the hawkish stance of part of the Fed.
- Kevin Warsh intentionally does not disclose his position, so the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain.

▪️FT:
- Investors have sharply increased their bets on policy tightening.
- Even with a pause, the market will look for a hint of a possible increase in September.

▪️Bank of America:
- The baseline forecast is a pause. However, the bank expects three rate increases at subsequent meetings, with the first one in September.

▪️Deutsche Bank:
- Expects a pause in July. Forecasts two rate increases starting in September.

▪️UBS:
- Does not rule out a rate increase as early as tomorrow, so the Fed can show its determination to bring inflation back to target. The final decision will largely depend on Kevin Warsh’s stance.

▪️Citigroup:
- Expects a pause. Considers an increase to preserve the Fed’s reputation unjustified, since long-term inflation expectations remain low.