7.28 midnight gold market review: a small rebound and short-term repair, but the bigger trend still remains dominated by the “Kun” approach

Looking back at 7.29 overall market action: Jingchuan was steadfast in viewing “Kun” from the morning gold brief to the evening brief. After the market opened today at 4081.85, it weakened all the way; during the session, it dipped to a low of 4011.62, and the target level was also fully reached.

From the news side: U.S. stocks rose across the board in the evening, with market risk appetite heating up. Safe-haven buying for gold continued to cool, and combined with the market’s ongoing expectation that the Fed’s rate cuts would be delayed, the U.S. dollar stayed firm. There has been no fundamental positive catalyst strong enough to support a sustained reversal and upward move in gold prices, so the strength of this rebound is limited.

Technical analysis: On the 1-hour chart, it’s clear that after the big drop, gold touched low-level support and then saw a small rebound. Price has moved back toward the Bollinger Band midline near 4044. The 5-day moving average briefly turned up and supported the gold price, but the 10- and 20-day moving averages are still pressing downward, leaving limited upside space. The KDJ indicator quickly surged upward into the overbought zone, which means this rebound will quickly face pressure and pull back again. The key resistance above is the 4044–4076 range, and support below is 4011; if the rebound hits the resistance area, that’s the chance to short.

Jingchuan Gold strategy: rebound into 4060–4076 to short in batches. For short-term targets, first look at 4040. If it falls back and breaks down, continue to watch the 4011 low. If price holds above 4080, temporarily give up the “Kun-head” approach and wait, observing $XAUUSD