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Is the tug-of-war between bulls and bears nearing its end? Gold prices may return to the 4,080 axis
In today’s Asian session, gold opened with a large bearish candle, directly falling below yesterday’s New York low, which seems to have set the tone for today’s decline. Throughout the entire Asian session, gold remained in a downward trend.
During the London session intraday, gold rebounded at one point and broke above the range high from the end of the Asian session, conducting a liquidity grab; afterward, it once again turned lower and made a new intraday low.
Ahead of the New York session, gold saw some rebound, but after encountering resistance at the Asian-session low, it turned down again and once more set a new intraday low.
Judging by the fact that intraday new lows were set one after another across the three sessions today, the downward bias is relatively clear. But it’s also worth noting that the cost-effectiveness of going short today may not be high anymore.
Looking back at the past few days, gold has been consolidating in the 3,900–4,200 range. I have repeatedly said that every time price is above 4,100 it’s mainly about shorting, and every time it’s below 4,000 it’s mainly about going long. This point was verified again yesterday.
With the Fed rate decision this Thursday approaching, will this range be broken? I think the odds are fairly high. But before this Thursday, the market may not lean toward either extreme level; the bigger likelihood is a return to a more balanced state—such as around the midpoint of the 4,080 range.
Of course, it’s also not ruled out that tonight the price may come back below 4,000 for another liquidity sweep, but this kind of move is more likely to happen tomorrow evening ahead of the release of the rate decision. In terms of specific execution, if tomorrow’s Asian session gold can come to around the 4,000 level and show a bullish sentiment here, you can try going long, with targets near 4,080.
This article is for discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice!$XAUUSD
In today’s Asian session, gold opened with a big bearish candle and directly broke below yesterday’s New York low, which seems to set up today’s downward trajectory. Throughout the Asian session, gold remained in a downtrend.
During the London session intraday, gold rebounded at one point and broke above the range high from the late Asian session, executing a liquidity capture. Afterwards, it turned downward again and set a new intraday low.
Ahead of the New York session, gold saw some rebound, but after encountering resistance at the Asian session low, it turned lower again and once more set a new intraday low.
Judging from today’s trend of consecutive new intraday lows across the three sessions, the bias toward downside is quite clear. But it’s also worth noting that the cost-effectiveness of shorting today may be lower.
Looking back at the past few days, gold has been consolidating in the 3,900–4,200 range. I’ve repeatedly said that when it reaches above 4,100, the primary strategy is to short, and when it falls below 4,000, the primary strategy is to go long. This was verified again yesterday.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for this Thursday, will this range be broken? I think the probability is fairly high. But before this Thursday, the market likely won’t lean heavily toward either extreme level; a more likely scenario is a return to a relatively balanced state—such as the midpoint of the 4,080 range.
Of course, it’s also not ruled out that tonight the price may again come below 4,000 for another liquidity sweep, but this kind of move is more likely to occur tomorrow evening, ahead of the release of the rate decision. In terms of specific execution: if tomorrow’s Asian session gold can come near the 4,000 level and a bullish mindset appears there, you can try going long, with a target around 4,080
This article is for discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice!$XAUUSD