Is the long-short tug-of-war nearing the end? Gold price may return to the 4,080 center

In today’s Asian session, gold opened with a big bearish candle and directly broke below yesterday’s New York low, which seems to set up today’s downward trajectory. Throughout the Asian session, gold remained in a downtrend.
During the London session intraday, gold rebounded at one point and broke above the range high from the late Asian session, executing a liquidity capture. Afterwards, it turned downward again and set a new intraday low.
Ahead of the New York session, gold saw some rebound, but after encountering resistance at the Asian session low, it turned lower again and once more set a new intraday low.
Judging from today’s trend of consecutive new intraday lows across the three sessions, the bias toward downside is quite clear. But it’s also worth noting that the cost-effectiveness of shorting today may be lower.
Looking back at the past few days, gold has been consolidating in the 3,900–4,200 range. I’ve repeatedly said that when it reaches above 4,100, the primary strategy is to short, and when it falls below 4,000, the primary strategy is to go long. This was verified again yesterday.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for this Thursday, will this range be broken? I think the probability is fairly high. But before this Thursday, the market likely won’t lean heavily toward either extreme level; a more likely scenario is a return to a relatively balanced state—such as the midpoint of the 4,080 range.
Of course, it’s also not ruled out that tonight the price may again come below 4,000 for another liquidity sweep, but this kind of move is more likely to occur tomorrow evening, ahead of the release of the rate decision. In terms of specific execution: if tomorrow’s Asian session gold can come near the 4,000 level and a bullish mindset appears there, you can try going long, with a target around 4,080 ‌
This article is for discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice!$XAUUSD ‌