U.S. stocks started crashing as soon as the market opened today, and Bitcoin is falling along with it.

Actually, this can be seen as a kind of early guess ahead of tomorrow’s meeting.
Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will issue a decision, and the crypto market will probably shake again.

Put simply: the Fed meeting is about deciding whether to move interest rates. Right now, the market broadly believes they will keep rates unchanged, and interest rates will remain around the 3.5%-3.75% range.
But what really matters isn’t whether they “move or not”—it’s the tone of what they say.

Why does the crypto market care so much?
Because things like Bitcoin are inherently risk assets. When people hear that interest rates may go higher, or the Fed’s tone sounds tough, they feel money is getting more expensive and risk assets aren’t as attractive—then they run for the exits.

When the U.S. dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields rise, crypto prices tend to drop easily. Conversely, if the tone is softer, people feel more relaxed and may push up for a round.

Right now, Bitcoin is roughly trading around 63k to 65k, and sentiment is quite panicky.

The market mainly has three possible scenarios:
1、Rates stay unchanged, and the tone is relatively polite
Then it might see a small rebound, trying to test the 66k and 68k areas. Altcoins could also get a bit of a boost.

2、Rates stay unchanged, but the tone is very hard (this probability is actually not small)
For example, they keep emphasizing that inflation still has risks, and that another rate hike could happen in September, etc. Then crypto prices will likely be pushed down first, to see whether 62k and 64k can hold.

3、They suddenly hike rates for real
Although the probability is low right now, if it happens, you need to be careful. In the short term, things could look pretty ugly—there’s even a chance of dipping toward 60k or lower.

Anyway, no matter the outcome, once the decision is released, the volatility over the following few hours will definitely be higher than usual.
If you’re playing with heavy leverage, brothers, it’s best to weigh your position first.

To put it bluntly: this meeting won’t change the big picture all at once, but it can stir up market sentiment quite a lot.
If you trade short-term, keep your eyes on around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 30th. If you’re holding long-term, one meeting probably won’t be able to turn things upside down.