From a plunge from 2350 to 1150, SNDK got slashed in half—and then slashed again. Will you dare to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: an avalanche-style drop, panic at its peak.

From the June 2350+ historical high to around 1150 today—within two months it’s been cut in half more than once. The daily chart has already broken below all moving averages; MACD bearish momentum is expanding; RSI has fallen into the oversold zone at 30-40; trading volume has surged, confirming the selling pressure. The weekly chart has repeatedly broken down; the monthly chart has retreated by over 40%. Either it will rebound violently after being extremely oversold, or it will keep drifting lower while searching for a bottom.

This is the most fragmented market this year: the stock price is down to the dogs, while the performance is unbelievably good.

First: AI storage demand hasn’t collapsed—the one that collapsed is “belief.”

Why is it down? Three words: profit-taking.

Doubts about AI memory demand, competition concerns triggered by China’s CXMT IPO, and a collective selloff in global chip stocks—Korean and Japanese memory stocks’ crash is transmitting to US stocks. But all of that is “sentiment,” not “facts.”

What are the facts?

Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, up twofold month-over-month; data center revenue surged by 200%+

Gross margin jumped to over 70%, and free cash flow exploded

Second: the July 29 FOMC—this may be the trigger point.

The Fed meeting is tomorrow, and the market is betting on rate-cut expectations. Today’s CPI has already softened. If the Fed turns dovish, growth stocks will launch immediately. As an AI storage leader like SNDK, the upside is far greater than the broader market.

Earnings are on August 5; there isn’t much time left for the bears.

If the Fed is more dovish + the earnings report reiterates AI spending, SNDK only needs two weeks to rebound from 1150 back to 1600+.

Third: a technical signal has appeared that you must pay attention to.

The 1150-1200 range is the current key support zone and also the dense prior trading area. Today it dropped to around 1150 with heavy volume, showing that bulls and bears are fighting fiercely right here.

If 1150 holds and it reclaims 1250 with volume, the oversold repair starts; the targets are 1400-1500. If it breaks below 1100, then look at 1000, or even 800-900.

It’s a duel between bulls and bears—you decide:

On one side:

Revenue up more than double year-over-year; data center revenue up over 200%+

Gross margin at 70%; strong free cash flow; zero debt

42B+ locked-in orders—very high visibility on performance

RSI oversold; historical probability of a rebound

FOMC + earnings are right around the corner—dense catalysts

On the other side:

Global chip stocks are being sold off collectively; sentiment is extremely bad

Technical chart broke down; trend is downward

Skepticism about whether AI capex is sustainable

The “boom-bust” cycle curse in the memory industry

Key levels

Resistance above: 1250-1300 → 1400-1500 → 1600-1650

Support below: 1100 (psychological level) → 1000 → 800-900

For short-term traders:

Pull back to 1100-1150 with a small position to try longs; stop-loss at 1050; take profit in batches at 1250-1300. If it rebounds above 1250, trim or lightly short; target is a retest around 1200.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily chart to stabilize above 1300 before entering from the right side; target is 1600+. If it breaks below 1000, stay on the sidelines and wait for an even lower accumulation zone.

For long-term believers:

If you believe AI storage is the main line for the next ten years, then 1000-1150 is your phased DCA zone.

SNDK now is like NVIDIA at the end of 2022—

Earnings surged, the stock price got halved, retail investors cursed it out, and institutions bought the bottom. Later, NVIDIA went from 140 to over 1000+.

At 1150, is SNDK’s pile of shares soaked in blood, or is it a bottomless pit?

The answer isn’t in the candlesticks—it’s in the earnings report on August 5. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $SNDK $MU $NVDA