The market has been calling the CLARITY Act the next bull-market switch, but Charles Schwab ran the numbers from this year: changes in the bill’s probability of passing can only explain 4.3% of $BTC ’s day-to-day rise and fall.

Instead, liquidations are more honest: short liquidations account for 29.8% of the volatility, and long liquidations account for 25.5%. Schwab also specifically reminds that liquidations aren’t the initial cause of price action, but they’re very good at kicking that K-line one more time.
The bill is still stuck in the Senate; there’s not much time left before the August 7 recess, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the deadline gets pushed to after the midterm elections. Judging by this data, if it doesn’t pass, it may not trigger the major breakdown everyone imagines; if it does pass, it might instead revive the story of institutions getting in again.
So does the bill’s title even matter?
Is anyone really buying the spot, and how much leverage has the derivatives market stacked?
That’s what’s worth watching.
#Ourbit trades more than just Crypto—global popular assets in one place.