I. Current market conditions

As of the early Asian trading session on July 28, Ethereum fell below the $1,900 level, with the past 24 hours down more than 3%. After ETH surged to 1983 yesterday, it quickly pulled back, dipping as low as around 1865; in the short term, bearish momentum has concentrated and released. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire market totaled $686 million, and more than 160k traders were liquidated; among them, long liquidations absolutely dominated ($542 million).

---

II. Key price ranges

Direction | Key price | Explanation
Upward resistance | 1900-1920 | Prior support has flipped to resistance; the daily Bollinger midline + EMA form a double suppression at 1920-1940
Recent high | 1981-1983 | The peak of this rebound; a breakout requires strong catalysts
Short-term support | 1850-1870 | The 38.2% Fibonacci support on the 4-hour chart; clear buy-side order absorption has appeared
Strong support | 1840-1842 | If broken, the bears will take over; targets are 1820-1800

---

III. The standoff between bulls and bears: key factors

Bullish factors:

· Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $104 million last week, about three times that of the Bitcoin ETF
· The US-Iran ceasefire has entered its third day; oil prices have plunged by more than 8%, and the geopolitical premium has faded
· BitMine Immersion has increased its holdings by more than 100k ETH over the past 30 days

Bearish factors:

· FOMC rate decision (July 28-29) carries huge uncertainty—an interest rate hike probability of 36.3%, the largest divergence since September 2024
· Bitcoin ETF saw a large net outflow on a single day, and the broader-market BTC fell below 64,000
· The 4-hour MACD shows signs of a death cross; the probability of a short-term pullback is relatively high

---

IV. Summary of mainstream trading strategies

Strategy 1: Sell the rebound (current mainstream approach)

· Entry: sell short on rebounds in the 1890-1905 range
· Stop loss: 1918-1960
· Targets: first 1860-1878, second 1835-1845

Strategy 2: Buy low at support (light-position range play)

· Entry: buy in the 1840-1850 range once it stabilizes
· Stop loss: 1820-1826
· Targets: first 1875-1878, second 1890-1910

Strategy 3: Breakout-follow-through trades (backup for extreme conditions)

· If it breaks down below 1835, chase the short; target 1810-1765
· If it holds steadily and rises with high volume above 1920-1940, chase the long; targets 1983-2000

---

V. Comprehensive assessment

Currently, ETH is stuck in the middle zone of 1860-1920, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. The bullish trend on the daily timeframe has not yet been broken down; this looks like a benign shakeout and position reshuffling. But before the FOMC lands, “every rebound is noise, and every drop is a performance.”

Core conclusion: Don’t take a side when the direction is unclear; wait for a breakout or breakdown after the 1860-1920 range, then follow through with the trend. If the FOMC outcome is hawkish (rate hike), ETH is likely to break below 1850 to test 1800. If it is dovish (maintains rates), it may rebound and test the 1920-1940 resistance zone.

---

⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is for technical market analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto trading is subject to extreme volatility. Today’s FOMC decision will amplify volatility—please strictly control your position size (no more than 3% of total funds per trade), use the isolated-margin mode, and set a stop loss in advance for every order. #以太坊