The market has been talking up AI development, believing that storage will always be scarce.

But the wind direction has started to change.

Samsung and SK hynix continue to expand production, and CXMT has also gone public. Although they can’t make HBM for now, DRAM will catch up sooner or later. Once competition in the mid- and low-end market intensifies, the three major original manufacturers will be able to free up more capacity for high-end products.

Downstream NAND is starting to cut prices—this is how the market works.

The story is valuable; the facts aren’t.

When everyone believes storage will always be in short supply, the stock price has already risen ahead of time. Once expansion news comes out one after another, capital starts trading the expectation that “storage won’t be that scarce in the future” again.

If one day the market starts telling the “storage scarcity” story again, it won’t be too late to come back.

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