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Let's study the total BTC aggregated positions across the whole network.
First, a few basic facts:
1. When the price was at its peak at 122k, the open interest also hit a historical high of 47B USD.
2. Open interest is currently at a support level of 21B USD. When the price was at 65k and 58k, open interest did not fall below 21B USD (as indicated by the arrows in the chart).
3. The open interest at 47B when the price was 122k dropped to 21B when the price was 58k.
Price drawdown:
(122k - 58k) / 122k = 52.46%
Open interest drawdown:
(47B - 21B) / 47B = 55.32%
Reasonable scenario analysis:
We are currently in a period where open interest is consolidating. At a lower price of 58k, open interest did not become lower, but it also did not increase. This suggests trading activity around 58k is not active—funds have not come in, but there have also not been large-scale liquidations.
For the price to surge higher, funds must enter, and open interest must rise.
If we see a lower price paired with higher open interest, that would indicate funds coming in to buy the dip. This signal does not seem to have appeared yet.
If the current open interest of 21B cannot be maintained, the next dense open interest zone will be at 16B, corresponding to a price around 36K.