2026 US stock super earnings season ultimate showdown! 72-hour key watch list:

Wednesday 7月29日
1. Nvidia $NVDA
has no earnings report this week, but as the leader in AI compute, giants such as Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditures. If earnings season validates that AI investment keeps growing, Nvidia as the leader in AI compute remains the most direct beneficiary for the market.
2. Meta Platform $META
releases after the close. Consensus is EPS around $7.13–7.23, revenue around $60.2–60.3B (YoY +26–27%), close to the upper end of its own guidance ($58–61B). The key is ad revenue, AI capital expenditures, and whether it has pushed surplus compute for external sales. If ad revenue beats expectations and spending is controllable, there is significant upside potential for profit expectations and the stock may sustain its strength (implied volatility around ±8%); if spending is revised up again but returns fall short, it could pull back.
3. Microsoft $MSFT
consensus is EPS around $4.21–4.24, revenue around $87.4–87.7B (YoY about +14–15%), within its own guidance range. The key metrics are Azure (management guidance remains constant in constant-currency growth of about 39–40%; the market focuses on whether it can hold steady or accelerate), Copilot commercialization, and gross margin versus AI investment returns. If Azure delivers and provides positive FY2027 guidance, it will strengthen the narrative of the AI business model and support the stock; if growth slows or concerns about capital expenditures intensify, near-term pressure is likely (implied volatility around ±7%). AI recurring revenue has already surged significantly—this is a key validation point.
4. SK Hynix $SKHY
market consensus revenue is about 84.1 trillion won, operating profit about 64.1 trillion won. Operating margin is expected to reach 75–77% (a record), driven by HBM (especially the dominant share led by HBM3E), DRAM/NAND price increases, and long-term agreements. Watch HBM order visibility, capacity expansion, and forward guidance. If it delivers high profit and provides a positive demand outlook, it will strengthen the narrative of an AI storage super-cycle and boost both the stock and the storage sector; if price or share signals are weak, volatility will increase.
5. Qualcomm $QCOM
consensus revenue is about $9.7B (its own guidance $9.2–10B). Beyond the smartphone business, the focus is validating the contribution and guidance from new growth curves in AI PCs, automotive, and data center/edge AI chips. If progress on diversification beats expectations, it helps with re-rating; if it remains highly dependent on the smartphone cycle, the reaction may be muted. Implied volatility about ±10%.
6. Arm Holdings $ARM
consensus is adjusted EPS of $0.41 and revenue of about $1.27B. Focus on licensing and royalty fees (especially data center/AI-related), orders for new architectures (such as AGI CPU), and longer-term ecosystem expansion. With a high valuation, if growth and guidance are strong it can hold up; otherwise it’s prone to a pullback (implied volatility is higher, about ±15%).
7. Robinhood $HOOD
consensus EPS is $0.41, revenue $1.23–1.27B. Focus on trading volume, active users, a rebound in crypto trading, the contribution from prediction markets, and growth in the Robinhood Gold subscription. If crypto and activity exceed expectations, the upside leverage is larger; after a miss earlier and subsequent pullback, the results and guidance will determine the near-term direction.
Thursday 7月30日
8. Apple $AAPL
consensus EPS is about $1.88–1.89, revenue about $108.9–110B (YoY about +15–16%). Focus on iPhone demand, services business (App Store, iCloud, Apple Intelligence, etc., potentially hitting a new high), gross margin (memory cost pressure and price increases offsetting), performance in China, and leadership transition (hardware leader taking over related responsibilities), as well as how AI features drive the hardware upgrade cycle. The company has often beaten expectations historically, but with the stock trading at elevated levels, any cautious guidance or cost concerns could trigger volatility (implied about ±4%). Services and AI deployment are the differentiated highlights.
9. Amazon $AMZN
consensus EPS is $1.81–1.82, revenue about $196–197B (guidance $194–199B). The core is AWS (previously accelerated to about 28%; the market expects it to continue or move further into the 30%+ range—AI workloads and backlog orders are key), advertising’s high-margin contribution, retail efficiency, and overall capital expenditures (AI-related scale is massive). If AWS accelerates and provides positive outlook, it could be “beat and raise,” boosting the cloud and AI segments; if growth or FCF is dragged by spending, it will face pressure (implied about ±7%).
10. Samsung Electronics $005930.KS
Market attention is on details of the Device Solutions semiconductor segment, HBM3E yield and HBM4 mass-production progress, the competitive landscape versus SK Hynix in the AI storage supply chain, and demand and pricing outlook. If HBM progress and profit structure exceed expectations, it will strengthen the storage super-cycle; otherwise it will intensify concerns about supply and competition.
Key macro focus this week
11. Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Probability of hold is about 60–70%+; rate-hike scenario implies a 25–40% range fluctuation. No SEP/dot plot. Watch the wording in the statement, dissenting votes (possibly 1–2 votes supporting a hike), and the Fed Chair’s press conference (Kevin Warsh) comments on the inflation path, employment, and the future path. If it tilts dovish (emphasizing data dependence and downplaying near-term hikes), growth stocks and the AI sector are likely to get a boost; if it tilts hawkish (setting up for hikes in September), valuations will face pressure. Oil prices and geopolitical factors remain upside risks to inflation.
12. Core PCE + GDP + initial jobless claims
GDP (Q2 advance): consensus around the 1.8–2.1% range.
Personal income and spending, PCE (June): core PCE consensus is about 0.2% QoQ and about 3.3% YoY (prior value about 3.4%); for overall PCE, watch whether YoY continues to cool.
Initial jobless claims: consensus around 200k.
A continued cooling of inflation plus a moderate slowdown in the economy is favorable for risk assets; if inflation persistence or growth is too strong, it reinforces hawkish pricing.
Who do you think will be the biggest winner of this earnings season?
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