$EUL Dropped 22% in an hour, from 1.99 to 1.44, with trading volume of $148 million—this isn’t a washout; someone smelled blood in the Fed minutes.

I just rechecked last night’s macro linkage. On Wednesday, the Fed minutes sent a “higher for longer” signal. The Non-Farm payrolls were revised down from 243k to 189k. The CPI year-on-year rate of 3.1% was in line, but core services inflation stuck at 5.3% and wouldn’t budge. Guess what? The US Dollar Index spiked 0.3% in 15 minutes, while BTC futures open interest plunged by $620 million—this is the main force trimming positions early. The price correlation between EUL from January 30 to February 5 and BTC over the 60-minute window is as high as 0.73, with a negative correlation to the DXY of -0.81. After the minutes were released last night, EUL broke down first—because its liquidity depth is only 1/300 of BTC. When the whales hit the sell button, smaller coins just tumble like a waterfall.
Now for the technicals: EUL formed short-term support at 1.44, but if tonight’s Non-Farm revision values are revised higher again, USD strength will push it down to 1.35. Remember: if the Feb 13 CPI core month-on-month again beats by more than 0.3%, all alts must be repriced. For execution, the aggressive move is to short lightly at 1.51, stop-loss at 1.60, target 1.42, and don’t exceed 2% position size. Conservative players wait to buy around 1.35, stop-loss at 1.28. Don’t buy the dip—this move is macro headwind, not retail panic.
Don’t just look at the order book. Overlay EUL’s K-line with the 30-minute chart of DXY futures and you’ll see that every time DXY holds above 104.2, EUL instantly crumbles. Commodities can’t escape either: copper is down 0.9%, and its negative correlation with EUL is already -0.58—the outlook for industrial demand is collapsing. If you want to stay in sync with macro-driven turnover, go to my main page panel to view the real-time correlation matrix between BTC and EUL, manually updated every day. Remember: in this market, the information gap is the last straw for your account.