July 28 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨The interest rate decision is coming soon—whether you’re long or short, you’re losing too. You need to focus on these key signals!

《Jiangfeng Trading Diary》第十五期
Yesterday’s recap: Bitcoin surged yesterday to around 65,722, then started to pull back, with the lowest reaching around 63,000. It precisely matched the short order viewpoint from Episode 14 near 65,700. Ethereum yesterday rebounded to the 1,982 area, then fell back to the 1,865 area, which also aligned with the short zone strategy from yesterday around 1,967～1,990. Now that the market is rebounding slightly, we need to focus on these points!

First, today’s viewpoint: focus on shorts at high levels. With the Fed interest rate decision approaching, remember to participate with light position sizing—risk index: 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆

📌 Ethereum: short the lead position around (1,920～1,940), and add shorts at 1,970
🏁 Target 1,850～1,800
🏁 Target 1,750～1,690

📌 Bitcoin: short the lead position around 64,300, and add shorts around 65,200～65,800
🏁 Target 62,500～61,300
🏁 Target 60,500～59,000

Here is my interpretation of the current market:
After the news conference following the interest rate announcement at the early hours of July 30 is crucial. Any hawkish/dovish signals will affect the subsequent trend. Because right now the market has many disagreements about the interest rate, according to CME data the probability of a rate hike in July has risen to 37.9%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 62.1%, but the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September has skyrocketed to 54.6%, and the probability of a 50 bps hike is 26.3%. Although the probability of keeping the rate unchanged in July is higher, any hawkish remarks mentioned in the meeting will increase the September rate-hike expectations!

Another thing that can’t be ignored: Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 3 consecutive days, totaling more than $476.8 million, ending 7 straight days of net inflows. Institutions are gradually withdrawing, leading to increased sell-pressure on the coin price!

Iran-Iraq ceasefire entering the third day—the ceasefire benefit has already been priced into the market! Three forces are intertwined; before FOMC lands, everything up is noise, and everything down is a performance. So no matter whether you’re long or short right now, there’s a high risk—make sure you participate with light positioning!

Written by: Jiangfeng Capital ——-K-lines and indicators are just the result of price, not the cause of price!

Wishing everyone a smooth trade, and may you achieve financial freedom soon!

Do you think Bitcoin will break through 68,000 at the beginning of August, or will it fall below 60,000?

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