FOMC rate decision suspense is at maximum tension, Bitcoin sharply pulls back

一、Market overview
As of early Asian trading on July 28, Bitcoin fell to around $63,000, hitting an 11-day low; Ethereum dropped below the $1,900 level, down more than 3% in 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the whole network totaled $679 million, including $536 million liquidated from long positions, with more than 160k traders liquidated.
二、Negative factors in the news: FOMC rate decision suspense at full throttle (July 28-29)
There is severe divergence in the market’s assessment of whether the Fed will hike or keep rates unchanged—probability of holding rates: 63.7%; probability of a 25bp hike: 36.3%, the biggest split since September 2024. Castle Securities even expects the Fed to unexpectedly hike by 25bp.
Bitcoin ETF flows diverge: the streak of consecutive net inflows has paused, and there has been a large single-day net outflow. ETF net outflows on July 23-24 exceeded $465 million.
NVIDIA AI credit risk spreading: NVIDIA is pushing forward more than $750 billion in AI infrastructure transactions; CDS surged to a record high, transmitting risk sentiment into the crypto market.
Geopolitical disturbance: Trump again threatens to resume strikes against Iran.
Positive factors: Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $104 million last week, about three times that of the Bitcoin ETF, and it led for the second consecutive week.
The Iran-U.S. ceasefire has entered its third day, and oil prices have plunged more than 8% to around $86. The U.S. “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” is in a critical stage of Senate consideration.
三、Technical analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): After yesterday’s spike to 65,722, it faced pressure and moved downward, with the lowest wick around 63,021. The current price is around 63,350; a valid break below the short-term moving averages has turned the short-term moving averages from support into strong resistance. Weakness is confirmed by the 1-hour and 4-hour charts in tandem, and the 65,000 level has shifted from support to resistance. RSI (14) is 32.63, nearing the oversold range; the MACD death cross confirms downside momentum.
Ethereum (ETH): After topping at 1,983 yesterday, it quickly retraced, dipping as low as around 1,865. The 1,900-1,920 zone has turned from support into resistance. On the daily chart, the middle band of the Bollinger Band plus the EMA forms dual suppression in the 1,920-1,940 area. There are signs of a MACD death cross on the 4-hour chart.
四、On-chain data
Medium- and long-term holding chips have not loosened on a large scale; short-term volatility mainly comes from derivatives leverage positioning. Bitcoin long positions were liquidated by $134 million, while short positions were liquidated by only $23.87 million—long liquidation dominates overwhelmingly. Ethereum long positions were liquidated by $80.40 million, while short positions were liquidated by $51.15 million. Over the past week, about 9,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, but open interest in futures has fallen instead, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than increasing bullish bets. #BTC #ETH