$BTC Dropped 2,000 points in three days! With ETF outflows continuing and a Fed rate hike looming overhead, can the 63,000 wall hold?

Brothers, was this BTC pullback from the “liquidity bait” really savage enough?

From 65,700 all the way down to 63,000, that’s a drop of no less than 2,700 points in three days. In today’s Asia early session, it once slid to 63,414, hitting a new 11-day low. After spiking to 65,780 yesterday, it quickly reversed, with the lowest wick piercing 63,021.

Three layers of bad news hit the market at the same time.

First, ETF capital outflows have continued for three straight days. Yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net outflows of $11.6 million: BlackRock’s IBIT saw outflows of $8.8 million in a single day, while Fidelity’s FBTC flowed out $2.8 million. Last Thursday and Friday alone saw even larger outflows exceeding $465 million. Institutions are running—that’s not a good sign.

Second, expectations for Fed rate hikes are heating up. Early tomorrow morning, the FOMC rate decision will be released, and the market is pricing in only a 3% chance of a rate cut. Castle Securities publicly went against the consensus, betting on an unexpected 25 bps hike on Wednesday. Traders think the probability of a hike is about one-third. Hike = tighter liquidity = risk assets get hit. Even old retail traders know this logic.

Third, NVIDIA has “played itself into a corner.” NVIDIA got pulled into AI infrastructure deal talks worth more than $750 billion, and the 5-year credit default swap price hit the largest single-day rise in history. The market worries that this kind of circular financing could artificially boost industry demand—once the bubble bursts, the consequences could be disastrous. Tech stocks crash, and BTC gets dragged down too.

Trump’s side isn’t quiet either. Yesterday he just said he would pause pressure on Iran to create room for negotiations, but in the next breath he threatened, “If talks don’t go through, we will resume military action.” Iran directly denied negotiations with the U.S. Geopolitical uncertainty has not decreased at all.

On the chart, around 63,400 at current price: MA7 is barely holding, but MA25 and MA99 are all pressing down overhead. The 63,000 level is the key defense zone—once there is an effective breakdown, the next area to watch is 62,000–62,200.

MIG long/short trade plan:
Short on a rebound near 65,000–64,500, and enter again; more aggressive entries around 63,500.
Go long: keep waiting for the wick dip to around 62,500–62,000, then try again.

Personal view: Before the Fed decision, market disagreement is so extreme it’s absurd—economists and traders are arguing like it’s a pot of boiling mess. In this kind of situation, going all-in to bet on direction is basically volunteering for a “head-on” loss. Better to wait until it settles on the ground before acting.

#长鑫开盘跌7.7%