Today is Tuesday, July 28, 2026.

I. Market Overview
As of the early Asian trading session on July 28, Bitcoin fell to around $63,000, hitting an 11-day low; Ethereum dropped below the $1,900 level, down more than 3% over the past 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the whole network reached $679 million, including $536 million liquidated from long positions, and over 160k traders were liquidated.
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II. News Flow

Bearish factors:
FOMC rate decision suspense is at its peak (July 28-29): the market is sharply divided in its outlook on a rate hike versus holding rates steady—probability of holding rates steady at 63.7%, probability of a 25bp hike at 36.3%, the largest divergence since September 2024. Castle Securities even expects the Federal Reserve to unexpectedly raise rates by 25bp. Bitcoin ETF flows are diverging: the streak of net inflows has paused, and a large single-day net outflow has appeared. From July 23-24, ETF net outflows exceeded $465 million.
NVIDIA AI credit risk contagion: NVIDIA is pushing ahead with AI infrastructure deals worth over $750 billion, with CDS soaring to record highs; risk sentiment is transmitting to the crypto market.
Geopolitical disturbance: Trump again threatens to resume attacks on Iran.

Bullish factors:
Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflow of $104 million last week, about three times that of the Bitcoin ETF, leading for the second consecutive week.
The Iran-U.S. ceasefire has entered its third day, with oil prices plunging by more than 8% to around $86.
The U.S. “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” is at a critical stage of review in the Senate.
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III. Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC):
After yesterday’s high of 65,722, it faced pressure and moved downward; the lowest wick came in around 63,021.
The current price is around 63,350. A decisive break below the short-term moving averages has occurred, and the short-term moving averages have flipped from support to strong resistance.
The 1-hour and 4-hour timeframe signals are converging lower; the 65,000 level has turned from support into resistance. RSI(14) reads 32.63, close to the oversold range; MACD’s dead cross confirms bearish momentum.

Ethereum (ETH):
After yesterday’s high of 1,983, it quickly dropped back, with a low around 1,865.
The 1,900-1,920 area has flipped from support to resistance.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger midline + EMA create a double-layer suppression at 1,920-1,940. There are signs of a 4-hour MACD dead cross.
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IV. On-chain Data
Medium- to long-term holder positions have not been loosened at a large scale; short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by leveraged derivatives positioning. Bitcoin longs were liquidated by $134 million, while shorts liquidated only $23.87 million—long liquidations are overwhelmingly dominant. For Ethereum, long liquidations were $80.4 million, and short liquidations were $51.15 million. Over the past week, around 9,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, but open interest in futures has fallen instead, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than increasing bullish bets.
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Chu Yuechen: 7.28 Bitcoin & ETH trading reference
The current market is in a wait-and-see tug-of-war period before the FOMC decision, with long/short divergence at a peak level in recent years. The triple pressure of diverging ETF flows, high-leverage derivatives games, and macro uncertainty is stacking up. On-chain data shows that medium- to long-term holders are not panic-selling; the pullback in the short term is more about leverage clearing. Before the FOMC outcome lands, direction is unclear, and the sustainability of any rebound remains doubtful. Watch whether BTC can hold the 63,000 key line and whether ETH can hold the 1,850 key line.

In terms of trading, we are still attempting a long position around 63,000, with a stop-loss at 62,000 and targets at 65,000-65,500. For ETH, near the 1,850 area, we will also set up a long position, with targets at 1,930--1,950 and a stop-loss below 1,800.
For short opportunities: for Bitcoin, you can reference the 65,500--66,000 range; for ETH, reference the 1,950--1,980 range. If price gives us those levels, I will promptly send real-time reminders to followers.

Liquidity in the coin market is very poor, and volatility is getting smaller and smaller. Even volatility exceeding 2,000 points for “big pie” in a day is already considered relatively high volatility. If you have extra funds, you can appropriately allocate to other assets.

Specific execution will depend on the real-time changes in the行情 (market conditions) to enter trades at the right moment! There are daily short-term trades; medium- to long-term positioning continues. Feel free to exchange views. $BTC