Mining difficulty drops for the first time in 17 years—are miners “surrendering” a bottom signal?

PlanB just posted a data point that sends chills down your spine: in 2026, BTC mining difficulty is expected to fall from 148.3T to 126.2T, a 15% drop. This is the first time since Bitcoin was launched in 2009 that annual difficulty has declined.
What does it mean? Mining one BTC now costs $76,100, but the market price is only $65,000. For every BTC mined, miners lose $11,000.
Large numbers of miners shut down, exit, and sell coins to keep operations running. Hashrate has fallen by nearly 20% from its peak. The Puell Multiple indicator has already dropped to the 17th percentile—historically, every time it reaches this level, it corresponds to a miners’ large-scale “purge” phase and a potential interim bottom.
But from another angle: the ones shutting down are the high-cost miners; the remaining low-cost miners actually earn more. The network automatically lowers difficulty = self-repair by the system. First time in 17 years. The last time miner surrender at this level happened, BTC was at $3,600.
Do you think this is a bottom signal, or the start of a new round of selloff?
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