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Key resistance above: 1920-1940. Daily Bollinger midline + EMA dual suppression. A breakout and hold = bulls recover cash, target 1983-2000.
Key support below: 1850-1860. 4-hour Fibonacci 38.2% support. A breakdown = bears take over, target 1820-1800.
After ETH surged to 1983 then rolled over and kept dumping down to 1866, it fell more than 3% over 24 hours. On the daily level, it’s still range-bound at high levels, and upside momentum is clearly slowing. With the US-Iran ceasefire diplomacy window opened, oil prices crashed more than 8%, once pushing ETH back to 1983; but the FOMC rate decision suspense on July 28-29 has been fully dialed up—rate hike odds are 36.3%. Bulls and bears are stuck here. No side-picking—wait for direction; whoever wins, follow.
Reasons to go long:
① The US-Iran ceasefire has been ongoing for the third consecutive day. Trump said both sides are holding “deep negotiations.” Brent crude has crashed from above $100 to around $86, and the geopolitical premium has quickly faded.
② Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $104.0 million last week, about three times that of Bitcoin ETFs—leading for the second straight week; inflows for July have already exceeded $300 million.
③ BitMine Immersion, the largest corporate ETH holder, added 104,512 ETH in the past 30 days; it now holds 5.78 million ETH, about 4.8% of the circulating supply.
Reasons to go short:
① After topping at 1983 on the 1-hour chart, there were consecutive bearish closes and a rollover. On the 4-hour chart, MACD shows a potential dead-cross signal—short-term pullback risk is relatively high.
② Fed rate hike odds: 36.3% for July, 55.7% for September. The market’s FOMC pricing is close to a 50/50 split—this is the most divided moment since September 2024.
③ Yesterday’s Bitcoin ETF saw outflows of $2.8 million; the broader market BTC dropped below 64,000, and ETH is moving in tandem—following the drop rather than rallying.
Breakout long: Buy on strong volume and a sustained hold above 1920-1940, stop loss below 1880, target 1983-2000.
Breakdown short: Sell on an effective breakdown below 1850-1860, stop loss above 1880, target 1820-1800.
Middle zone: Don’t move between 1860-1920—wait for direction confirmation before acting.
Before the FOMC lands, all rebounds are noise; all selloffs are a performance. $ETH