Key levels above: 64,000-64,500. The Bollinger midline 64,512 and EMA50 64,720 form a double resistance; a breakout and hold = bulls recover. Targets: 65,000-65,500.

Key levels below: 63,000-63,200. Daily MA30 + Bollinger lower band provide double defense; if broken = bears take over. Targets: 62,200-61,800.

BTC was dumped from 67,150 down to 63,200; over the week it fell nearly 6%. A Nikkei crash of 4% dragged APAC sentiment. NVIDIA dropped more than 5% intraday, weighing on tech stocks. Deep talks between Iran and the US and a 5% oil price plunge pushed BTC back toward 65,000 at one point, but ahead of the FOMC, funds chose to de-risk—ETFs saw net outflows for two straight days totaling over $460 million, and the 7-day inflow trend finally ended. 63,200 is the daily MA30 lifeline—bulls and bears are about to go to war.

Bull/bear logic

① 63,200 is double support: daily MA30 and the lower edge of the 4-hour box range. After multiple tests it hasn’t broken; there is buy support at the lows
② Iran-US are holding “deep negotiations,” and oil has crashed from above $100 to around $82; the geopolitical premium keeps fading
③ Last week, Bitcoin ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $33.8 million in total, marking the third consecutive week of fund inflows

① After topping at 65,500 on the 1-hour chart, it then closed repeatedly in red and slid—EMA50 at 64,720 and EMA200 at 63,925 form bearish suppression. A MACD dead cross at -199.89 confirms bearish follow-through
② Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a 7-day inflow streak; on July 23-24, two days saw outflows of over $460 million. Fidelity’s FBTC had a single-day outflow of $202.5 million, a major area of damage
③ The Fed’s Wednesday interest rate decision suspense is at maximum—economists expect no change (probability 64%), but interest-rate futures price in a 36% rate hike; the split is the biggest “in a long time”

Breakout to go long: Volume-backed hold above 64,000-64,500, then chase longs. Stop-loss below 63,500. Targets: 65,000-65,500.
Breakdown to go short: If there is an effective breakdown below 63,000-63,200, chase shorts. Stop-loss above 63,800. Targets: 62,200-61,800.
In the middle zone: Don’t act between 63,200-64,000; wait for direction confirmation.

Oil collapsed, ETFs are running, and the FOMC is hanging overhead—amid the tug-of-war from these three forces, let the candles tell you who wins. $BTC ‌