U.S.-Iran ceasefire for three straight days: Trump says an agreement is very likely; Brent crude falls back to the $85 level

For the third consecutive day, there were no airstrikes between the US and Iran. Brent crude fell back, and Trump said an agreement in the negotiations is “very likely” to be reached.
(Background: Fighting in the Middle East is cooling down! The US military temporarily suspends strikes on Iran, and Trump shifts to pushing for ceasefire talks in the Strait of Hormuz)
(Additional background: Goldman Sachs warns of a surge in oil prices—under extreme scenarios, Brent crude could break $120 per barrel)

Brent crude, which was near $100 at last weekend, has tumbled 15% and is trading around $85. Along with the decline in oil prices, there is a rare calm on the battlefield: the US military has not carried out any airstrikes against Iran for the third straight day, and Tehran has also held back, pausing attack actions against Gulf neighboring countries such as Kuwait.

Trump says the deal is close, but Tehran says nothing of the sort

This is not the first time Trump has talked things up. In the past, he has repeatedly claimed that talks had emerged with hope, that a final decision was imminent, yet the fighting has continued to keep flaring up—so far, outsiders cannot be sure whether the US and Iran have truly sat down at a negotiation table.

Earlier, while again speaking aboard his Air Force One, he said Iran is willing to come to the table because the US has continued to apply intense military pressure. If the negotiations conclude successfully, both sides will continue talking; if talks break down, the US will restore its previous operational tempo. Along with that, his previously hardline rhetoric about launching a large-scale strike against Iran has also been temporarily toned down.

But Tehran’s version is completely different. Earlier, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Bagheri emphasized that there are currently no formal consultations underway—at most, it is a third party acting as a mediator, carrying the US side’s assessment of the current situation to Iran, and he did not elaborate on other details.

Strait of Hormuz: Mines are not cleared, so the route can’t reopen

Insiders said that after Iran and Oman officials met in Tehran over the weekend, they continued discussing the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. One of the proposed plans is to reopen the mid-strait channel. Since the conflict broke out at the end of February, almost no ships have dared to take the route. Tankers mostly divert to the northern channel closer to Iran’s coast, or to the southern channel near the Omani exclave of Musandam.

To reopen the mid-strait channel, an important hurdle is the mines on the seabed. This route has likely already been mined by Iran, so mine-clearing must be completed first.

European countries including the UK and France have signaled openness: as long as safety conditions are met, they are willing to lead efforts to help clear the mines. Oman’s side’s negotiating representatives have released messages that are somewhat optimistic, believing that further progress could be seen in the coming days, but they also admitted that no one can guarantee whether an agreement will ultimately be nailed down.