$SKHYNIX Hynix is down 38% in a month—Nvidia’s $750B AI high-stakes bet backfires and turns into a death knell? Should this dip-buy be considered, or should you run?

Brothers, SK Hynix has made people lose their minds with this drop.

From the historical high in June to now, its market cap has evaporated by $470 billion, with a plunge of as much as 38%. Today, the Korean KOSPI index once tumbled 7.6%; SK Hynix sank more than 30% intraday, setting the biggest one-day drop in history. After being listed for only 12 trading days, it broke below the $149 issue price.

Three layers of bad news hit the market at the same time.

First, Nvidia played itself into trouble. Nvidia became involved in negotiations over more than $750B in AI infrastructure investment; the credit default swap spread jumped 14 basis points in a single day, setting a historical record. The market worries that such large-scale financing could trigger a downgrade in credit ratings. Nvidia actually got on its knees first—its stock closed down 5% on Monday, dragging the entire semiconductor sector down with it.

Second, the market starts doing the math on AI. Nvidia and SK Hynix have reached an AI chip supply agreement of over $500B, but investors are now afraid not that there will be no orders, but that AI infrastructure capital expenditures are too high and the payback period is too long. Storage chip costs are rising continuously, and users may reduce usage or seek cheaper alternatives.

Third, a China rival has come in to kill. CXMT listed on the STAR Market on Monday; it surged 466% on the first day, with market cap jumping to $484B. It directly grabs a share of the DRAM pie alongside SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung. Yangtze Memory is also preparing an IPO, and the NAND Flash market will need to share the spoils too.

Looking at the chart, around 1104 is the current price; MA7, MA25, and MA99 are all pressing overhead—classic bearish alignment. Today’s low was 1096, just one step away from the previous low of 1063. Once this level can’t hold, downside room will open up.

Mig’s trading plan: Short on rebounds, keep entering shorts near the 1120–1130 range where price stalls; for longs, wait for stabilization near the 1060 previous low area and then try entering.

Personal view: SK Hynix’s fundamentals are actually not bad. It will release a record quarterly performance on Wednesday, but in the short term, sentiment has been crushed by worries about Nvidia’s credit risk and AI capex. This panic likely won’t disappear quickly—don’t rush to buy the dip; let the “bullets” fly a bit longer.

#长鑫今日上市成交901亿