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The price levels have returned to the original levels again; this time the downside is being transmitted due to expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting.
My personal prediction for the rate decision: it will most likely keep interest rates unchanged, but they may deliver a more hawkish statement.
Similar wording: “Inflation risks are still trending upward, and further rate hikes can’t be ruled out.”
With further rate hikes possible, US stocks may see choppy trading in the short term, US Treasury yields will remain volatile at high levels, and there is a high risk of near-term downside for high-risk assets.
Yesterday’s BTC, ETH, and US stock selloff transmission logic: the escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, while US Treasury yields surged sharply, suppressing all high-risk assets.
Taking ETH as an example, after the bearish news was digested, it sold off on high volume to the 1870 range, with a low at 1858; key support lies at 1848-1861. As long as support holds, there is still an upside opportunity. Going forward, the core indicators to watch are crude oil prices and US Treasury yields.
In the US stock market, the current July-August period enters the earnings season. Most companies’ earnings data came in above expectations, which is fundamentally positive. However, Wall Street institutions and quantitative funds won’t “cash in” the gains in batches. The forecast is that all positives will be released in a concentrated manner, with timing in the later part of the earnings season—around mid-August.
Trading suggestion: before the trend move clearly breaks out, there are two approaches: 1) stay patient and wait for opportunities, or 2) trade short-term based on range-bound fluctuations, waiting for the market to choose a direction. #英特尔Q2营收创15年最快增速