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1. Gold: Geopolitical easing drives a rebound, with tug-of-war around the $4,000 level
Intraday performance: On July 27, in the Asian session early morning, spot gold jumped and opened higher by nearly $40, rising as much as about 1.5% to $4,115.89 per ounce. It then narrowed its gains, slipping back to trade in a range near $4,090—$4,100. Shanghai Gold’s main futures contract also closed up about 1.10%.
Key drivers: Over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran paused mutual attacks— the U.S. halted military strikes on Iran, and Iran simultaneously stopped retaliatory attacks. A sharp drop in oil prices eased market concerns about runaway inflation; the U.S. dollar index opened lower and pressure from real interest rates was briefly relieved. Meanwhile, SPDR Gold ETF has posted net additions of nearly ten tons for four straight trading days since July 20.
Outlook: The Fed’s policy meeting on July 29—30 is the biggest turning point. The market’s disagreement over the probability of a rate hike is extreme: the odds of a 25-basis-point hike are about 38%, while holding rates unchanged is about 70%. Cinda Futures believes that before the Fed decision lands, gold will mainly remain in weakly biased consolidation; if Fed Chair Woshvies keeps a relatively hawkish stance, there is a possibility the gold price could pull back again to $3,900. But the medium- to long-term logic hasn’t changed—global high debt, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks still support the value of gold allocation.
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2. Crude oil: Geopolitical premium is rapidly unwound, losing and regaining the “hundred-dollar” level
Intraday performance: Brent crude briefly plunged more than 7% at the open, breaking below $90 per barrel, with a low of $89.60. WTI crude fell more than 6% to below $84. The largest drawdown within two days exceeded 9%. In China, both SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts fell by more than 8%.
Key drivers: The U.S.-Iran conflict previously caused global oil supply losses of about 11.10 million barrels per day, and inventories fell to historic lows. Brent at one point broke above $101. But news that hostilities would pause over last weekend made the market quickly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. The deeper issue is that the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency shows that global oil demand is expected to decline by 1.00 million barrels per day this year, which is a far larger downward revision than before. “Demand-side collapse” is redefining oil price pricing logic.
Outlook: Current global crude and product oil inventories are still significantly below normal levels. Once supply disruptions occur again, the upward push on oil prices would be even more intense. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping in the Red Sea have not been fully eliminated. Near-term price action depends heavily on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations—if diplomacy achieves a substantive breakthrough, oil prices may continue to be revised lower; if the situation keeps fluctuating, the geopolitical premium could return.
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The pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities is the common trigger for today’s gold and crude oil moves—oil’s sharp drop releases inflation pressure, and gold rebounds by leveraging that move. But both are at a critical crossroads: gold is constrained by expectations for Fed policy, while oil is caught in the tug-of-war between “supply rupture” and “demand collapse.” This week’s Fed decision will be the key variable determining direction. #夏日创作营
Day’s market: On July 27 in the Asian session early hours, spot gold surged at the open after a gap, jumping by nearly $40 at one point, rising about 1.5% to $4,115.89 per ounce. Then gains narrowed, and it pulled back to trade in a tight range near $4,090–$4,100. Shanghai Gold’s main contract also closed up by about 1.10%.
Key drivers: Over the weekend, the US and Iran paused mutual attacks— the US paused military strikes against Iran, and Iran simultaneously stopped retaliatory attacks. The sharp fall in oil prices eased market fears of runaway inflation, while the U.S. dollar index opened lower and pressure on real yields was temporarily relieved. At the same time, SPDR Gold ETF holdings have recorded net increases for four straight trading days since July 20, adding nearly 10 tons.
Outlook: The biggest turning point will be the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on July 29–30. There are major differences in market expectations on whether to hike rates— the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is about 38%, while the chance of holding steady is about 70%. Cinda Futures believes that before the Fed’s decision is finalized, gold is likely to remain in a relatively weak consolidation; if Fed Chair Woushwei maintains a relatively hawkish stance, there is a possibility that the gold price could revisit $3,900. But the medium- and long-term logic remains unchanged— global high debt, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks still support the allocation value of gold.
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II. Crude oil: Geopolitical premium rapidly unwinds; gains around the $100 level are lost and regained
Day’s market: Brent crude oil initially plunged by more than 7% at the open, breaking below $90 per barrel, with a low of $89.60. WTI crude fell by more than 6% to below $84. The largest drawdown within two days exceeded 9%. Domestically, SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts both fell by more than 8%.
Key drivers: The Iran–US conflict previously caused a global oil supply loss of about 11.1 million barrels per day, with inventories falling to historical lows, and Brent had briefly broken above $101. But news of a ceasefire over last weekend made the market quickly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. The deeper issue is that the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report shows that this year global oil demand is expected to fall by 1 million barrels per day, a large downward revision from earlier estimates. “A collapse on the demand side” is re-defining oil price pricing logic.
Outlook: Current global crude oil and refined product inventories remain significantly below normal levels. If a supply disruption occurs again, the upside pressure on oil prices will be even more intense. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping in the Red Sea have not been fully removed. Near-term price action is highly dependent on progress in Iran–US talks— if diplomacy achieves substantive breakthroughs, oil prices may continue to be revised lower; if the situation repeatedly swings, the geopolitical premium could return.
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The Iran–US ceasefire is the shared trigger for today’s gold and oil moves— the sharp oil drop releases inflation pressure, while gold rebounds on the back of that. But both are at a critical crossroads: gold is constrained by expectations for Fed policy, while oil is caught in a tug-of-war between “supply breaks” and “demand collapse.” This week’s Fed decision will be the key variable that determines the direction. #夏日创作营