#夏日创作营 Where are the future opportunities in crypto? Short-term price action still carries risks!

#夏日创作营 Where are the future opportunities in crypto? There are still risks in the short-term trend!

In the next one or two weeks, Bitcoin will most likely continue to trade sideways. After that, there is also a risk of another round of declines. The reason is actually very simple: the late-June rally looked good on the price, but there was no real incremental capital entering the market. In plain terms, it wasn’t because more people bought or demand was strong—it was just that sell orders in the market became fewer, so the price could only rise a bit. That doesn’t count as a solid uptrend. Earlier, the market could withstand the pressure mainly because everyone was optimistic that the U.S. crypto clarity bill would be successfully implemented. Riding on this positive expectation, it offset the market’s downside pressure.

But now the key problem has come: this positive expectation has already fallen short. When the market pulls back next, the downside pressure will fully show up.

Looking at the broader trend, during the July rebound, Bitcoin still failed to break through the key weekly-level resistance. Last week, it briefly surged above it, but quickly fell back again—it couldn’t hold. Meanwhile, U.S. two-year and ten-year Treasury nominal yields, real yields, and the U.S. Dollar Index are all rising at the same time, meaning borrowing costs for the market are going up and liquidity is tightening. When liquidity is tight, risk assets like stocks and crypto tend to be suppressed. Normally, the crypto market alone can’t possibly sustain a strong uptrend. The reason it didn’t drop hard before was purely because market expectations for the clarity bill allowed it to “hard hedge” the negative impact of worsening liquidity. But now the situation has changed completely. The clarity bill that was propping up the coin price has, in the near term, basically no hope of getting passed. The earlier bullish expectations have completely missed. Moreover, the current state—tight dollar liquidity and low overall risk appetite—has shown no substantive improvement. Whether looking from the capital side or Bitcoin’s own price action, this rebound rally can’t hold up anymore.

Taken together, over the next one or two weeks, Bitcoin’s overall trend is still likely to be range-bound, and it will most likely test the lows again. At this stage, the risk-reward and probability of success for shorting are higher. For execution, you can set the stop-loss at the prior high point. Also, many key events ahead will affect the market—at each node, they could change the direction of both gains and losses: the Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting in the early hours of July 30; end-of-month earnings reports from major tech companies; the U.S.-Iran negotiations with an uncertain timeline for implementation; the U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data on August 7; and the U.S. CPI inflation data on August 12. These data points will influence the flow of global capital. They are interconnected, but their impacts on the market differ. At each critical time point, it could become the key trigger to shift the market and confirm whether gains or losses take the lead. If next week’s Fed meeting outcome and the tech company earnings reports meet market expectations, then including Bitcoin, risk assets will most likely stop falling and see a modest rebound and repair.

For the crypto market specifically, the August 7 non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data are the top priority—they are the core key window that will determine the direction of the near-term trend. $BTC ‌