7.28 early-morning thoughts

Today early on, it jumped straight up thanks to a tailwind from easing tensions in the Middle East. The rise drove it to 4116 at the highest point; however, after the spike, there was absolutely no follow-on incremental capital to take the baton. The funds that chased the move in the short term all started to run away. Throughout the day, it trended from a higher open to a low close, and now it’s ranging and grinding around 4075.
On the 4-hour K-line, it’s clearly visible that the gold price has, in the short term, badly pulled away from the short-term moving averages. It inherently has a need to come back and repair the moving averages and also fill the early-session gap from the jump. Moreover, on the daily chart, there’s a big pile of trapped positions in the 4130-4150 zone; this area is naturally a ceiling. A one-shot breakout is basically unrealistic.
Overnight resistance: 4090-4100
Strong resistance: 4120-4130
Support: 4065-4075
Defensive support: 4040-4050
Plan: Short around 4090-4100 near that resistance zone; if the price spikes, keep adding shorts around 4120. Targets are around 4070-4065. If it breaks down, watch for 4050.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!
$XAUT