I. Gold: Geopolitical easing drives a rebound; tug-of-war around the $4,000 mark

Intraday market data: On July 27, during the early Asia session, spot gold opened sharply higher with a gap up of nearly $40, at one point rising by about 1.5% to $4,115.89 per ounce. Then the gains narrowed, and it eased back to trade in a range near $4,090—$4,100. Shanghai Gold’s main contract rose in tandem, up about 1.10%.

Key drivers: Over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran paused reciprocal attacks; the U.S. also suspended military strikes against Iran, and Iran simultaneously stopped retaliatory attacks. The sharp fall in oil prices eased market concerns about runaway inflation, while the U.S. dollar index opened lower and pressure on real yields eased temporarily. In addition, SPDR Gold ETF has recorded net inflows of nearly 10 tons for four consecutive trading days since July 20.

Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on July 29—30 is the biggest potential turning point. There is a major divergence in market views on the probability of rate hikes—around 38% are pricing in a 25 bps hike, while about 70% expect rates to remain unchanged. Cinda Futures believes that before the Fed decision is finalized, gold will mainly see weaker range-bound trading; if Fed Chair Woschivy maintains a more hawkish stance, there is a possibility the gold price revisits $3,900. But the medium- to long-term logic remains unchanged—global high debt, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks continue to support the allocation value of gold.

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II. Crude oil: Geopolitical premium is quickly unwound; the $100 level is gained and lost

Intraday market data: Brent crude initially plunged by more than 7%, falling below $90 per barrel, with a low of $89.60. WTI crude fell more than 6% to below $84. The largest drawdown over two days exceeded 9%. In China, both main contracts for SC crude oil and fuel oil dropped by more than 8%.

Key drivers: The Iran-U.S. conflict previously led to an estimated loss of global oil supply of about 11.1 million barrels per day, and inventories fell to historic lows, with Brent briefly breaking above $101. But news that hostilities were paused over the weekend caused the market to rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. The deeper issue is that the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency shows that global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day this year, a substantial downward revision from the previous outlook. “Demand-side collapse” is now redefining oil price-setting logic.

Outlook: Current global inventories for crude oil and refined products remain significantly below normal levels. If supply disruptions occur again, the upward push on oil prices would be even more pronounced. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping in the Red Sea have not been fully removed. Near-term price action is highly dependent on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations—if diplomacy achieves substantive breakthroughs, oil prices may continue to be revised downward; if the situation fluctuates, the geopolitical premium could return.

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The U.S.-Iran pause in fire is the common catalyst for today’s gold and crude oil moves—oil’s crash releases inflation pressure, while gold rides the rebound. But both are at critical crossroads: gold is constrained by expectations for Fed policy, while crude oil is caught in a tug-of-war between “supply disruption” and “demand collapse.” This week’s Fed decision will be the key variable that determines the direction. #夏日创作营