#夏日创作营

July 27, 2026 SK hynix: A deep-dive analysis of the Korean stock

I. Market recap: A terrifying day after a so-called “dead-cat bounce”

On July 27, numbers flickered ominously on the electronic screens of the Korea Exchange in Seoul—SK hynix (000660.KS) opened up with nearly a 2% gain. Early in the session it surged to as high as up 2.3%, but before the call of the bulls had even fully sounded, it abruptly stopped. The share price immediately reversed downward; during the day, the decline briefly approached 3%, and ultimately closed up 3.24% amid fierce tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This K-line, with both a long upper shadow and a long lower shadow, is like a Sword of Damocles hanging overhead, telling the story of an intensely split market.

Behind this “V-shaped reversal” are two forces fighting to the death. On one side, the previous trading day (July 24) saw the Korea Composite Index plunge 5.73%, and SK hynix wiped out more than 8% in a single day—panic had reached its extreme. On the other side, a nuclear-level positive catalyst fell from the sky: the Office of the President of South Korea announced that SK Group and global tech giants such as NVIDIA have agreed on a five-year long-term supply cooperation for premium storage chips totaling as much as $750 billion. Samsung and Broadcom also locked in $200 billion in orders, and together Korean companies and global tech giants signed a massive deal of $950 billion for AI chips and infrastructure.

In the US stock market, the story for SK hynix (SKHY) was even more dramatic. It opened at $159.61 and hit a high of $159.71, then got attacked by profit-taking and leveraged funds at the same time. It slid to a low of $148.31, and is currently $148.69, with an intraday swing of over 7%. Fortunately, in the US after-hours session, the storage concept rebounded across the board. SK hynix rallied nearly 6% in after-hours, leaving a glimmer of hope for the next day.

The Korea Composite Index closed up 0.97% at 6,755.74 points, and the KOSPI opened by surging 1.7% to 6,806.27 points, with Samsung Electronics up nearly 3%. The entire South Korean memory sector swung violently between panic and mania—like a ship in a storm: it didn’t capsize, but it was nowhere near reaching the other shore.

II. Technical indicator analysis: The bearish “iron curtain” hasn’t been torn yet

Open the technical panel for SK hynix in the Korean market, and a bleak picture appears.

From the moving-average system: the current price is around 1.78 million won. The 5-day moving average at 1.78 million won and the 10-day moving average at 1.77M won are still able to provide slight support, flashing a “buy” signal. But the 20-day moving average at 1.8166 million won has turned downward; the 50-day at 1.8432 million won, the 100-day at 1.9749 million won, and the 200-day at 2.2879 million won all show red “sell” lights. The medium-to-long-term moving averages are in a standard bearish arrangement—like a tightening net that firmly suppresses the price. Overall, moving averages show a stark setup of 4 buy signals versus 8 sell signals—bears hold absolute control.

The core technical indicators are even less optimistic. The 14-day RSI is 49.16—though it hasn’t fallen into the oversold abyss below 30, the “neutral-to-weak” positioning implies bearish momentum hasn’t fully exhausted, and downside space still exists. The MACD stands at -21750; the green histogram keeps expanding, and the fast and slow lines accelerate away from each other below the zero axis—this is a classic bearish trend strengthening signal.

Yingwei Caijing’s comprehensive technical rating gives four cold words: “strong sell.” On a daily timeframe, there are 8 sell signals but only 1 buy signal. On the indicator level, sells are also 4 versus buys at 3. From classic pivot points, the current price has fallen below the 1.8M won long/short dividing line, officially slipping into the bearish territory.

In short, the technicals are warning investors in the most straightforward language: this is not a time for greed—it’s a time for respect.

III. Earnings preview: The strongest quarter in history is about to be unveiled

The judgment day that truly decides SK hynix’s fate is just two days away—on July 29, SK hynix will officially disclose its 2026 second-quarter financial report.

This will be a record-worthy scorecard. According to Infomax compiled forecasts from 14 local Korean brokerages, the market consensus expects SK hynix’s Q2 revenue to reach 84.06 trillion won (about $56.8 billion), and operating profit to be as high as 64.09 trillion won (about $43.7 billion), surging about 596% year over year. The operating margin is expected to climb to 75% to 77%—a figure that would not only刷新 the company’s own record, but also exceed the total operating profit of 47.2 trillion won for all of 2025.

Meritz Securities analyst Kim Sun-woo is even more optimistic. He estimates SK hynix’s Q2 profit before tax will break above 100 trillion won, including around 41.6 trillion won in one-off investment gains obtained from Bain Capital exiting its stake in Japan’s Kioxia, plus 6.01 trillion won in core operating profit. This means that even after stripping out one-off gains, SK hynix’s core earnings power is still climbing at an astonishing speed.

What is driving all of this? The answer is just two words: AI. In Q2, DRAM and NAND storage chip prices are projected to jump 30% and 49%, respectively. As the absolute leader in the global HBM (high-bandwidth memory) market, SK hynix’s HBM4 has already entered mass production. KB Securities researcher Kim Dong-won pointed out that sales revenue from global tech companies and AI data center operators is expected to account for 70% of SK hynix’s total revenue. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also declared forcefully: “This time it’s different—because this is not driven by seasonal demand, but by industry demand.”

However, market disagreement cannot be ignored either. Analysts project operating profit, and the gap between that and market consensus is as large as 58 trillion won. If the final numbers come in below expectations, even if the absolute value remains impressive, the “buy the expectation, sell the fact” execution may arrive as scheduled.

IV. Key support levels and resistance levels: Strategic ground in the battle of bulls and bears

In the Korean stock market, SK hynix’s current price around 1.78 million won sits on an extremely sensitive technical zone.

Support camp: The first line of defense is 840.6k won (S1 pivot support). This is a short-term technical support level and also a convergence zone for the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. If this level fails, the second line at 640.9k won (S2) would absorb selling pressure; this area is the lower end of a previously dense trading range. In the most extreme case, 472k won (S3) would become the last barrier against panic sentiment. Once it breaks, the technical picture would collapse completely.

Resistance camp: The primary checkpoint is the 1M won pivot point—the dividing line between bulls and bears. It has already been effectively broken, turning into rebound resistance. Looking upward, 416k won (R1) is the first substantial resistance where trapped positions are densely stacked. 60.1k won (R2) and 580k won (R3) would require major positive news to have a chance to be reached.

Translated to the US stock market for SKHY: watch support at $145 (the dense trading area from late June to early July) and $138 (around the 20-day moving average). Resistance is at $157 (the gap-up consolidation platform) and $165 (the high of this cycle).

V. Trading suggestions: Precise layering, tailor-made to one’s situation

For short-term traders: the “strong sell” signal from the technicals has not been lifted. A neutral-to-weak RSI suggests the downside move may not be fully finished, so it’s not advisable to blindly bottom-fish. If you insist on betting on the earnings-driven move, it’s recommended to wait for the stock price to pull back to around 1.75 million won (Korean market) or $145 (US market) and then show a low-volume stabilization signal. Try with an extremely light position, and set stop-loss strictly at 1.72 million won or $142. Limit single-trade loss to a level you can bear. Be especially cautious: the options market has already priced in roughly ±17.8% earnings-driven volatility. Even if your direction judgment is correct, volatility crush could still erode profits.

For medium-term investors: holders shouldn’t panic and cut positions. Over the past 24 days before July, the Korean National Pension had net bought 425.8 billion won worth of SK hynix against the trend. Long-term capital’s “voting with its feet” is far more convincing than any technical signal. Treat 1.74 million won as the core defensive line. As long as it doesn’t break effectively, you can hold patiently and wait for earnings to catalyze. If earnings come in above expectations, the stock price could quickly repair to above 1.85 million won.

For long-term investors: perhaps this is the window of a “golden dip.” The $950 billion cooperation deal locks in demand certainty for the next five years. AI infrastructure construction is still at an early stage. Jensen Huang has been clear that “the industry scale in the future decade must expand by 5 to 10 times.” A staged accumulation strategy can be adopted—gradually buying in the 1.70 million to 1.80 million won range. You can refer to the upside space to $330 (approximately the level of 450k won) provided by Barclays.

VI. Outlook for the next phase: After the storm, the king returns

In the short term, SK hynix will still struggle in a swamp of high volatility. The deleveraging of leveraged ETFs has not been fully completed. On July 31, South Korea’s regulators will further tighten trading rules for leveraged ETFs, and liquidity pressure will follow closely. The scars from the previous trading day’s 8% plunge haven’t faded; today, it tested the downside again with another 3% intraday move, showing that panic sentiment has not been cleared out.

But if you zoom out, the logic becomes clear. Jensen Huang said it plainly: “Bubbles will eventually burst, but it won’t happen quickly because AI buildout is still in the early stage.” Global tech giants invest tens of billions of dollars every year to build AI infrastructure. Full constraints on resources—chips, electricity, construction workers, and more—actually delay the arrival of any supply-demand reversal. This kind of “beneficial constraint” is exactly what buys the most precious time window for core suppliers like SK hynix.

My view is: the most intense selling phase is nearing its end, but the “final drop” might appear around the earnings period. JPMorgan Chase has already made it clear that the market’s most brutal selloff may be over. When the fog around the July 29 earnings report lifts, when the shackles of leverage gradually loosen, and when demand for AI compute continues to expand at an exponential pace—this storage king stumbling forward through the storm will ultimately rise again from the 1.78 million won trough.