The U.S. Treasury market is really “pressuring” the Fed Chair Jerome Powell lately

I. The fuse: The U.S.-Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher
A new round of U.S.-Iran military clashes in July suddenly escalated, and international oil prices briefly broke through $100 per barrel. Worries that inflation could be back quickly ignited the market, and Wall Street began large-scale selling of U.S. Treasuries.

II. A hard-core reaction in the bond market: yields surge wildly
1、The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed cumulatively by more than 30 basis points from late June, reaching around 4.65%, close to the highest levels in nearly ten years.
2、The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was even tougher: it jumped to around 4.32%, firmly pressing above the Fed’s current rate cap of 3.75%.
The market signal is clear: calling hawkish from Powell’s mouth every day and insisting that inflation will return to 2% is no longer enough—you need to actually raise rates.

III. Fed meeting expectations: rate-hike odds surge
The policy decision is coming out on Wednesday.
The CME tool shows: the probability of keeping rates unchanged is around two-thirds, but the probability of a rate hike jumped from the teens to close to 40% within a week.
How worried everyone is about inflation, how uneasy they are about whether the Fed can deliver is in direct proportion.

IV. Dual pressure: fiscal deficit + debt issuance by tech giants
1、On the fiscal side, this year the deficit is expected to still come out around $2 trillion, meaning U.S. Treasuries need to be issued continuously at a large scale, and the supply pressure can’t be relieved.
2、On the tech side, ultra-large cloud computing providers are driving capital expenditure sky-high for AI infrastructure, issuing debt like crazy. Rating agencies also warn that leverage and off-balance-sheet commitments could threaten credit quality.
With the bond market squeezed from both sides, yields naturally can’t stay put.

V. The stock market is also hit Nasdaq is down more than 2% last week; the Philadelphia semiconductor sector is worse, with tech stocks leading the decline. Once expectations for higher interest rates kick in, companies cut spending and consumers also rein in consumption, and profit expectations get revised down.

VI. Latest update: oil prices temporarily fall
Today (27th), after the U.S.-Iran weekend incident suddenly paused attacks on each other, oil prices plunged by more than 5% on the news, and Brent slipped to just above $90.
The market slightly exhaled, but how long the ceasefire can last is unclear—uncertainty is still there.

VII. Crypto market analysis
The crypto market has been jumping with the macro as well in these days, but overall it’s tougher than the stock market.
Bitcoin: It’s hovering around $65k (up about 1% today). Last week, when oil prices surged past $100 and U.S. Treasury yields spiked, it was pushed below $64k. Now that oil prices have fallen and risk appetite has warmed up, it has climbed back.
Institutional ETF flows had been continuously inflowing for a stretch, and there was some outflow around the weekend again—sentiment remains cautious.
Ethereum: It’s performing even stronger—up directly 4–5% today and touching around $1,960. It’s stronger relative to Bitcoin.
Overall logic: high interest rates + high oil prices = pressure on risk assets (and crypto is a non-yielding asset, so opportunity costs are high). Once oil prices drop and rate-hike expectations ease, crypto is likely to rebound.
But the Fed’s decision on Wednesday is key—if Powell turns more hawkish again, or if there’s a real rate hike, crypto will most likely wobble again; if it’s more dovish, it could surge toward $66,000–$68k.
The Fear and Greed Index is still in the “Fear” zone—don’t play with leverage too aggressively. Just keep an eye on the Fed and that’s it.