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🤔Do you think the news moved the market, or that the market ran ahead and the news came out afterward?
$CL This time, the crude oil story is quite interesting. It surged to around 94 last week and then started to fall, and only afterward did news come out that Trump had delayed military action. By the time trading opened on Monday, the oil price had already dropped from around 93 to around 82.
What’s even more coincidental is that the 82 level is exactly the spot where the market had previously priced in “ceasefire talks ongoing, but risks still remain.” Today, another report came out about an oil tanker explosion, yet the oil price didn’t keep rising. Instead, it makes you feel that in many cases, news is only a catalyst—the real thing that determines the market is the money flow.
My take: watch the 82 area closely first. If it can hold, you could consider trying a long with small position sizing. If it breaks below 82, then keep waiting—don’t rush to buy the dip.
Cast your vote👇
👍 A: News determines up and down moves.
🔥 B: Money moves first, and the news is just there to back it up.
Which side are you on?