#夏日创作营

Are the U.S. and Iran really going to talk now? This morning, the market cast an approval vote with real money

This morning, global capital markets saw a full “green across the board.”

At the start of the Asia-Pacific session, all three U.S. stock index futures jumped across the board, the precious metals market all moved higher, and cryptocurrencies rose broadly—except for international oil prices, which took a steep dive. Behind it all was a major piece of news from the Middle East: U.S.-Iran negotiations had suddenly made breakthrough progress.

👉What happened?

Local time on July 26, Michael Waltz, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said that to leave more room for diplomatic talks, U.S. President Trump has paused military strikes against Iran.

This decision broke the previous situation in which U.S. forces had launched airstrikes on Iran for 13 consecutive days. Reports say that as early as the 24th, Trump had already ordered the U.S. military not to carry out strikes that day.

Iran also released positive signals. Baqae’i, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that information exchange between Iran and the United States is still ongoing, and that the mediators are continuing to carry out related work. An Iranian source told Reuters: as long as the United States stops military strikes, Iran will also stop military actions.

Meanwhile, multiple countries—including Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman—are strengthening diplomatic mediation to push Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations.

However, Iran still holds a “skeptical attitude” toward the intentions on the U.S. side, believing the decision is driven more by tactical considerations. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei also said that Iran will safeguard Lebanon’s territorial integrity and make this its top condition for reaching a memorandum of understanding with the United States.

👉Stocks rally across the board

As soon as signals of a cooling geopolitical risk emerged, capital markets responded immediately.

For U.S. stock index futures, as of 6:40 a.m. Beijing time, Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 1.24%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.66%, and Dow Jones index futures rose 0.47%. Earlier, U.S. stocks had already been under pressure throughout the previous week— the S&P 500 closed lower for two straight weeks, and the Dow Jones fell for three straight weeks. This morning’s rebound can be seen as a “timely rain.”

The precious metals market saw even more stunning gains. Spot gold rose above 4110 dollars per ounce, up more than 1.5% intraday; spot silver rose above 60 dollars per ounce, surging 3.15% intraday. The logic behind the rise in gold prices is that the pause in fighting in the Middle East eased concerns about oil supply risks and inflation.

Cryptocurrencies also saw a broad-based rally. Bitcoin rose above 65000 dollars, up more than 1% intraday; Ethereum surged more than 3%. Dogecoin, SOL, HYPE, and others also rose by more than 2%. Market risk appetite is rebounding across the board.

As for international oil prices, they plummeted sharply instead. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 5%, to 84.26 dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil futures also dropped more than 5%, to 86.67 dollars per barrel. The geopolitical risk premium is quickly fading.

👉What should we watch next?

This across-the-board surge is, at its core, a risk-asset frenzy driven by “peace expectations.”

But it’s important to recognize that the situation is still complicated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the United States, and some analysts believe he may try to persuade Trump to shift the policy direction toward escalating the war with Iran. Netanyahu himself also said that the conflict between Israel and Iran “will only end if Iran’s current regime falls or is completely weakened.”

In addition, multiple tests are ahead this week: Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will release their earnings reports one after another; the U.S. Federal Reserve will publish its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Market volatility is far from over.