U.S. PCE inflation data and initial jobless claims data are released first, followed immediately by the heavyweight FOMC rate decision + the Powell press conference. This week’s macro backdrop unfolds step by step, with all variables landing at once, directly steering the future price action of BTC and ETH.

First card: Two key economic data sets drop at 20:30 this evening
One is the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, with the previous figure at 187k; the market expects it to rise to 204k.
Unemployment data continues to climb, indicating the labor market is gradually weakening. This would reinforce rate-cut expectations and be bullish for risk assets; conversely, if the data comes in far below expectations, it would show strong job market resilience, supporting the Fed’s slightly hawkish stance and limiting upside room for BTC.

Two is the year-over-year core PCE inflation rate for June, with the previous figure at 3.40%, expected to fall to 3.30%.
PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most. If the inflation decline meets expectations, it means the cooling trend is continuing; once inflation data rebounds again, it would signal stubborn inflation is back, and arguments for rate hikes and maintaining high rates would regain momentum.
These two sets of data will prime market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s early-morning policy meeting this week.

Second card: The FOMC rate decision is officially released at 02:00
The market broadly expects rates to be kept unchanged this time, but the key has never been whether to change rates.
The focus is on the dot plot and the economic outlook summary, as well as how Fed officials view the interest-rate path over the course of the year. A hawkish tone would continue to suppress crypto market valuations; if it releases a loosening signal, BTC would only have a chance to open up upside room. After a long period of silence, the market has built up plenty of wait-and-see sentiment, so the decision landing will inevitably trigger sharp volatility.

Third card: 02:30 Powell holds a monetary policy press conference
The decision text is cold numbers; the chairman’s press conference is the emotion multiplier.
In the key Q&A section after the new Powell takes office, every statement will be parsed and re-interpreted repeatedly by the market. Dovish comments would boost investors’ risk appetite; if the wording is tough and retains the possibility of further rate hikes, U.S. stocks and crypto would face pressure in sync.

Employment data and the inflation PCE rate lead off with a warm-up battle, then the Fed decision + Powell’s remarks arrive as the grand finale. Data moves first to probe market reactions, and the policy meeting locks in the mid-term liquidity tone.

In the past, many people were used to taking a heavy position in advance to bet on expectations, only to be harvested by the reversal after expectations get fully realized. My thinking is very clear—I won’t press a directional bet in advance. $BTC #CLARITY法案进入最后关键阶段 ‌