#夏日创作营 The rebound is here, but a reversal is still too soon

The crypto market is going through a very clear shift—liquidity has dried up.
In the past, in a market like that, as long as there were hot spots, a narrative, and liquidity entering, even newcomers could quickly find opportunities. But now it’s different: the market isn’t lacking projects, and it isn’t lacking information—it’s lacking new participants, new viewpoints, and new creativity.
So what is the crypto community trading right now? Everyone is trading stocks—stock tokens on exchanges. Even altcoins and the mainstream are nobody’s interest anymore, so the entire crypto industry chain has been thrown into disorder. This is the biggest upheaval since 2017.
Last Friday, they were saying the situation would upgrade, but then, just turning around, it eased again. With the stimulus impact driven by the easing between the US and Iran, BTC continued its rebound trend, probing upward to above 65,000, and then came under pressure and fell back.
As for Bitcoin’s future direction, it’s very likely it will still carve out a major consolidation pattern—structurally, it will be broadly similar to what we saw from 2–5 months. For now, Bitcoin at this level won’t surge or crash sharply, and there won’t be a particularly obvious, strong trend—just repeated movement up and down. In the near term, altcoins should see some momentum.
As to whether this is a major bottom, the probability is low. In terms of both time and space—both time and extent—the adjustment hasn’t been enough. And the US can’t cut interest rates now either, so there’s a lack of positive catalysts to drive prices higher. On top of that, historically during midterm election periods, Bitcoin has declined to varying degrees—so the odds of this being a major bottom are extremely low.
Over the next 1–2 weeks, the overall market will still be a fierce, volatile back-and-forth, but overall it looks like the process of a second attempt to test the lows. $BTC ‌