#夏日创作营 The situation in the Middle East may be heading for a key shift.

Iran has not walked away from negotiations; instead, it is willing to resume contact with the United States. The U.S. side has also said it is still leaving room for talks. The market’s most feared scenario—further escalation—has, for the moment, shown signs of slight easing.

For the market, what truly affects risk assets is not who speaks more aggressively, but whether the Strait of Hormuz is operating normally, whether oil prices continue to rise, and whether global liquidity remains under pressure.

If negotiations can keep moving forward, pressure on oil prices may ease—an encouraging signal for risk assets including BTC. If tensions escalate again, everything will be repriced.

Next, more than a war of words, the market is watching for real actions.