#夏日创作营 The rebound is here, but a reversal is still too early

The crypto market is going through a very clear change: liquidity has dried up.
In the past, in a market, as long as there were hot topics, narratives, and liquidity entering, newcomers could quickly find opportunities too. But now it’s different—the market lacks not projects and not information, but new participants, new viewpoints, and new creativity.
So what is the crypto market trading now? Everyone is trading stocks—stock tokens on exchanges, even small-cap alts and majors aren’t being played anymore. As a result, the entire industry chain in crypto has been disrupted, the biggest upheaval since 2017.
Last Friday, people said the situation would escalate, but then it swung back to calm. Under the stimulus impact as tensions between the US and Iran eased, BTC continued its rebound trend, pushing upward to probe above 65k, then faced pressure and pulled back.
For Bitcoin’s future direction, it’s highly likely it will still form a large consolidation/relay pattern. In terms of the structure, it will be roughly similar to that of February to May. At this position, Bitcoin will not temporarily see a big rise or big fall, nor will there be a particularly obvious strong-trend行情—just back-and-forth churn. In the near term, altcoins should gain some momentum.
As for whether this is a major bottom, the probability is not high. In terms of both time and price range, the correction isn’t enough. The US also can’t possibly cut rates now, so there’s a lack of upside-positive catalysts. In addition, historically during midterm election periods, Bitcoin has seen different degrees of declines. Here, the probability of it being a major bottom is very low.
Over the next 1–2 weeks, the overall market will still be characterized by fierce sideways volatility, but overall it’s a process of a second dip. $BTC ‌