$ETH ‌ A warning about “fake breakout” signals

· Key technical resistance has not been effectively held: $1,956-$1,967 is the daily Bollinger upper band and the previous dense trapped-coin zone. A valid breakout requires a 4-hour candlestick body to hold. Since the price touched and then quickly fell back, the pattern looks more like a “wick” probing test.
· Volume-price divergence and capital outflows: U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $70.7 million, ending five consecutive days of net inflows. The rebound is driven more by short sellers’ forced cover, with no fresh capital coming in.
· Funding rates remain negative: the ETH funding rate is below the bearish threshold of 0.005% and stays in a continuous slight negative state, indicating shorts still dominate and longs’ willingness to chase gains is weak.
· Short-term technical indicators are overbought: RSI on shorter timeframes has entered the overbought zone. ADX>50 signals the trend is overheated, and the pressure for mean-reversion pullback is high.
· Macro risks remain unresolved: the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting is the biggest variable. Until the outcome is clear, the market will likely remain cautious.
$ETH ‌