July Fed Rate Decision Preview: “Hold Steady” Is the Consensus, but a Rate-Hike “Black Swan” Must Be Watched

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At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the July interest rate decision will be released, and at 2:30, Chair Waller will hold a press conference. What was originally expected to be a routine, uneventful meeting has become a key turning point for the second half of policy, as oil prices have broken above $100 per barrel and sticky inflation has heated up. Within a week, the rate-hike outlook has surged from 12% to 36%

I. Market Pricing

CME latest data: The probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% is 63.7%, while the probability of a 25bp rate hike is 36.3%; the probability of cumulative 25bp hikes by September exceeds 55%, and expectations for tightening over the year have broadly returned to the forefront

Major investment banks expect a hold in July and a move in September, but some institutions warn that the risk of a July rate hike has been underestimated by the market

II. Three Drivers Behind the Warming Expectations

Brent crude breaks above $100 per barrel, sharply increasing pressure from energy inflation rebound

Core inflation remains sticky; there is still a clear gap from the 2% policy target

New Chair Waller has downplayed forward guidance, amplifying uncertainty and market volatility

III. Key Focus

Whether the policy statement deletes the easing language and pivots to warning about upside inflation risks

Whether dissenting votes supporting a rate hike appear, reflecting internal disagreements within the committee

Whether Waller’s press conference clearly signals a September rate hike

IV. Scenario Impact

Base scenario (about 60%): Hold steady + a relatively hawkish stance; risk assets come under mild pressure and then digest expectations, with attention shifting to September

Black swan scenario (about 36%): Unexpected 25bp hike; the U.S. dollar and Treasuries jump, and risk assets quickly sell off

Dovish scenario (very low): Downplay rate-hike expectations; risk assets rebound across the board#CLARITY法案进入最后关键阶段