Bitunix analyst: The “super central bank week” and AI earnings are testing the market twice; what the market is truly trading is whether “inflation risk is being institutionalized.”

Mars Finance News: On July 27, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will successively release their interest rate decisions. The U.S. second-quarter GDP, Core PCE, and earnings reports from multiple technology giants will also be released at the same time, subjecting monetary policy, economic growth, and corporate profitability to a one-time market test. Under the interacting forces of energy prices, tariff policy, and AI capital expenditure, the market is reassessing future global cost of capital, rather than simply betting on rate cuts or rate hikes.

Although there are signs of a temporary cooling in the Middle East situation recently, Iran and the U.S. have continued negotiations via Oman regarding issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has also said it is willing to maintain a ceasefire and continue talks. However, risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have not been fully eliminated, and the Houthi armed forces continue to threaten energy transportation, leaving uncertainty in crude oil supply still present. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy issued an emergency status for the power grids in 17 states due to extreme heat, again highlighting that energy demand remains high, meaning energy prices may still become an important factor driving inflation later.

On the other hand, Trump has once again expanded the scope of tariff pressure, issued a threat of a 301 investigation to the European Union, and has continued to face legal challenges, indicating that uncertainty in global supply-chain costs is still accumulating. In the technology sector, another kind of inflation pressure is emerging: Qualcomm has raised chip prices, competition between AI models continues to intensify, and Samsung, SK Hynix, and NVIDIA are expanding investments, showing that the global AI infrastructure race has not cooled down. However, the market’s focus has gradually shifted from “how much to invest” to “when enough returns can be generated.” This week’s earnings reports from heavyweights including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Qualcomm will directly determine whether AI capital expenditure is still sufficient to support the currently elevated valuations of technology stocks.

Therefore, what the market truly needs to verify this week is not only whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged, but also whether Waller will further emphasize the risks of high inflation, and whether companies’ earnings reports can prove that AI investment is being converted into profitability. If Core PCE and GDP continue to show resilience, the Federal Reserve will maintain high rates for a longer period, and the likelihood of reopening discussions on the space for rate hikes will further increase. Conversely, if economic data starts to slow while companies continue to expand capital expenditure, the market’s focus will shift back to pressure on corporate cash flow and valuation adjustments.

This week will become an important turning point for global asset pricing in the second half of the year, and will also determine whether capital continues to chase high-growth narratives or returns to value assessments based on cash flow and fundamentals.