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Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market today, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan, an opening price of 49.5 yuan, and a gain of more than 470%. At one point, its market cap surpassed 3.3 trillion yuan.
For the first time, the A-share storage sector has a true DRAM manufacturing leader.
My view on the storage sector going forward is:
In the short term, sentiment is likely to be strong, but it will most likely split first.
Changxin’s listing will bring a new valuation anchor to the entire storage industry chain, and capital will continue to tap domestic equipment, materials, OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test), and module companies.
At the same time, however, Changxin is too large in scale, and it will also divert capital that was previously concentrated in storage concept stocks. The next phase won’t be that all storage stocks rise together; instead, capital will pull out of pure concept plays and concentrate on companies that truly have orders, deliver performance, and can enter Changxin’s supply chain.
There are three main areas of impact:
First, domestic semiconductor equipment and materials will benefit most directly.
Changxin’s fund-raising will be used for DRAM production-line upgrades, technological iteration, and cutting-edge R&D. As long as it continues to expand capacity, equipment, materials, and components are the most certain “digging-shovel” targets.
Second, domestic module and OSAT companies will benefit in the medium term.
With increased supply of domestically produced DRAM chips, domestic manufacturers can reduce their reliance on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, improving the penetration rate of domestic storage in servers, smartphones, and automobiles.
Third, it’s not entirely positive for global storage prices.
Changxin’s capacity expansion will increase global DRAM supply, and in the long run it may intensify price competition for mainstream DRAM products, putting pressure on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron’s mature offerings.
But in the HBM and high-end server memory segments, Changxin is currently more of a catch-up player, and in the short term it will not immediately change the high-end storage landscape.
So what this listing truly reinforces is:
Domestic substitution, equipment capacity expansion, and supply-chain repricing—indicating that prices of all storage chips will keep rising.
In the near term, in terms of sentiment, the more important question will be whether Changxin can hold steady after the listing, and where the capital ultimately flows—toward which supply-chain companies that truly deliver results.