Ahead of the FOMC, BTC is completing a healthy leverage reset. After touching $63,666, it quickly rebounded and, as of the time of writing, is back up to around $64,500. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire market totaled $323 million, with long liquidations accounting for 84%—a typical leverage unwind rather than a panic selloff.

1. The core contradiction behind this drop is in macro conditions: the US 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 4.71%, hitting a new intra-year high. Crude oil prices, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, have also moved above $100 per barrel. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged to 82%. The bigger variable this week is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, scheduled to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30. The market expects rates will most likely be kept unchanged (3.50%-3.75%), but the key is the post-meeting statement and the press conference. Bloomberg predicts that Dallas Fed Chair Logan and Cleveland Fed Chair Hammack may cast dissenting votes, leaning toward an immediate hike. If there are two dissenting votes, it effectively serves as a preview of a September rate hike.

On-chain data, however, shows different signals. Gate.com analysts point out that the number of long-term BTC holders currently in a loss has already exceeded the level seen during the FTX blowup period, approaching the 2018 bear market level, and BTC’s realized price is about $50k. This implies two directions: long-term investors’ unrealized losses may deepen further, but a true bottom usually forms only after the market has thoroughly rotated the coins’ hands.

2. Technicals: the key ranges are being tested repeatedly. BTC is currently oscillating narrowly within $64,300-$64,900. Short-term momentum is weak, but the structure has not broken. Key levels:
- Upper resistance: $64,800-$64,900 (the 1-hour long/short boundary), $65,200-$65,400 (4-hour moving-average resonance pressure), and $66,600-$66,900
- Lower support: $63,700-$63,800 (a concentrated short-term buying zone), $63,100-$63,300 (the 50-day moving average and a mid-term “life line”), and $61,200-$62,500 (extreme trend support)

The core logic in a range-bound market is: hold support tightly and keep a close eye on resistance. Before the FOMC lands, it will most likely continue the narrow consolidation with no trend-driven move.

3. Trading strategy: stay cautious before the meeting outcome. Long setup: if BTC pulls back to $63,700-$63,800 and shows a stabilization signal with decreasing volume, you can try a small long position. Stop-loss: $62,800. Targets: $65,200-$65,500. The risk-reward ratio is about 2:1. No short for now: the current price still has room to move toward the upper resistance, and the ETF net inflow trend has not broken for three consecutive weeks—so shorting against the trend does not offer a good risk-reward.

4. Key variable: three scenarios for the FOMC meeting:
- Hawkish (higher probability) → BTC falls to test $63,000
- Neutral → maintains oscillation in $63,000-$65,000
- Dovish (lower probability) → pushes to $64,850-$65,300

In the final few lines: the core reason for this drop is leverage liquidation, not deterioration in fundamentals. The rapid reclaim around $63,600 shows that there are still bids. The real test is the FOMC meeting; before that, the $63,700-$64,900 range will most likely continue grinding. The direction will be selected. No rush.