Houthi forces launched three attacks on Saudi oil tankers within 48 hours, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit a multi-month low.

Shipping-tracking firm Kpler data shows that on Sunday, only 11 bulk cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest level in months. In the past 48 hours, the Houthis carried out consecutive attacks on three Saudi oil tankers, while also striking Saudi Aramco’s refining facilities along the Red Sea coast.
(Background: Goldman Sachs: $110 oil is a panic top—or is it a new normal laid foundation?)
(Additional context: Iran fires back at the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: paralyzing 12% of oil transport in the Red Sea)

Table of contents

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• Houthis attacked three tankers in 48 hours
• Saudi Aramco’s Red Sea coastal facilities hit in parallel
• Kpler data: Strait of Hormuz traffic volume declines simultaneously
• Oil price trend and Goldman’s extreme scenario

On July 27, shipping tracker Kpler released the latest data. Last Sunday, only 11 bulk commodity cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, hitting the lowest level in months. Throughout the weekend, transit volume through the adjacent Strait of Hormuz also stayed at a low level.

Houthis attacked three tankers in 48 hours

In an official statement on July 26, Yemen Houthis said the group attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours, while continuing to impose a maritime blockade on vessels associated with Saudi Arabia.

On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, warning international shipping companies that ships trading with Saudi ports could face military strikes. Lebanese Al Mayadeen TV reported on July 26 that currently, 16 Saudi vessels are being forced to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco’s Red Sea coastal facilities hit in parallel

On Saturday, the Houthis carried out strikes on Saudi Arabian National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) facilities in Jizan and Yanbu. This was a two-pronged operation: attacking tankers in transit as well as refining facilities at the oil-producing end.

Saudi Aramco is the state-owned oil giant of Saudi Arabia. Its global average daily oil production is about 12 million barrels, accounting for around 12% of the world’s crude oil supply. Jizan and Yanbu are Saudi Aramco’s main ports for exporting crude oil to Europe and Asia, while the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial shipping route to Europe.

Kpler data: Strait of Hormuz traffic volume declines simultaneously

Kpler data shows that after the Houthis attacked Saudi Red Sea coastal facilities, there was a notable drop in ship transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, only 11 bulk cargo ships passed through, marking the lowest record in months. For comparison, under normal conditions, the Strait of Hormuz sees an average daily transit volume of about 30 to 40 ships.

Meanwhile, transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remained low throughout the weekend, indicating that the Middle East shipping corridor is under dual pressure.

Oil price trend and Goldman’s extreme scenario

International oil prices showed volatility in early trading on Monday. After futures on Brent crude fell on Friday, they dropped about 6% on the day to around $91 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to below $84. Analysts said that, over the weekend, a pause in tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel sparked expectations for a ceasefire, but the Houthis’ attack actions indicate that the risk to Red Sea shipping has not been removed.

On July 27, investment bank Goldman Sachs released a commodities report, arguing that the upside in oil prices is significantly stronger than the downside, and that summer inventory drawdowns in the near term will support oil prices trading at elevated levels. Goldman analyzed three oil price scenarios; under the extreme scenario, Brent crude could break above $120 per barrel.

If the Houthis continue attacking tankers and refining facilities, transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz could fall further, becoming a hidden catalyst supporting higher oil prices.

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